To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support higher taxes on either alcohol, tobacco, or sugar, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like Strongminds-style mental health interventions and Georgism!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
Resolution criteria is a little fuzzy. What about if e.g. https://www.alcoholpolicysolutions.center raises several million over the next 6 years? It's funding to an EA org (part of Charity Entrepreneurship), so by definition any funding that goes to it is EA funding?
@JCE I think the description is pretty clear that the origin, not the destination, is what matters here. So if the funder of your mentioned millions can't be determined, or they're not considered "EA funders" from before, then it wouldn't be enough to resolve YES.