Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area. For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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Clarification request: does research count? (I think it does, but I think this could be misinterpreted)

@Trifalcon yup, research is fine, although it seems like it might be hard to get to $10m with research alone. Of course the research has to apply specifically to wild-animal-welfare, not just general topics like animals' capacity to suffer.

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