Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
5
63
185
2030
29%
chance

To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that promote land value taxes (and related georgist ideas), and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

Note that general "YIMBYism" -- making it easier to build housing via legalizing ADUs, streamlining permits, eliminating parking minimums, etc -- is not considered georgism, even though the two movements sometimes overlap.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

Note that if an EA funder /invests/ in a georgist startup (like Valuebase) or city development project (like Telosa) as opposed to granting the funds, I will have to figure out how to discount the dollar amount by some factor, since investments are not the same as grants (they're hoping to eventually get the money back!).

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like charter cities, alcohol/tobacco taxation, and approval voting!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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