Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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6
123
2030
52%
chance

To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support stable-totalitarianism-related projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

In order to count, a project has to be primarily about the risk of stable-totalitarianism. Some stuff that would count: research / advocacy about the malicious use of BCIs, or attempting to prevent the use of AI for persuasion/propaganda purposes with specific reference to the possibility of stable totalitarianism, or lobbying for obscure legal changes in a certain nation that make a coup less likely. Some stuff that wouldn't count: simply making anti-Trump donations in the 2024 election, or making general AI alignment improvements reduce AI takeover risk.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like approval voting and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!

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Going Y here because 10 mil is nothing.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/8/23150496/effective-altruism-sam-bankman-fried-dustin-moskovitz-billionaire-philanthropy-crytocurrency

In July 2021, Ben Todd, who co-founded and runs 80,000 Hours, estimated that the movement had, very roughly, $46 billion at its disposal, an amount that had grown by 37 percent a year since 2015. And only 1 percent of that was being spent every year.

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