Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Effective Altruism•New EA Cause Area?

145

Ṁ2.2K

Ṁ2.1K

2030

ALL

27%

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

31%

Wild-animal welfare

20%

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

30%

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

10%

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

18%

Climate geoengineeering

14%

Preventing stable totalitarianism

21%

Preventing S-Risks

38%

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

21%

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

12%

Space governance / space colonization

19%

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

The three winning answers of this market will be determined by the research I do to resolve my other markets in this "New EA Cause Area" tag -- each of those ~20 markets asks if a given EA cause area will get $10M in funding between Oct 2023 and the start of 2030, and this market is about which three cause areas get the most funding in that time (doesn't matter if it's over or under $10M).

I'm excluding two "New EA Cause Area" markets from the answers listed above -- the Patient Philanthropy Fund, and "impact markets" like manifund -- since these are more like charitable-giving strategies than actual object-level cause areas.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

As for what exactly falls under the heading of each category above, please see the descriptions of each individual market in the "New EA Cause Area" tag!

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Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

The video posted by PauseAI on Twitter might as well have been a comedy sketch.

bought Ṁ20 of Wild-animal welfare NO

Why aren't the already popular EA cause areas included e.g. global health, factory farming, biorisk?While I believe many of the cause areas in this market are underrated by EA, I suspect they will unfortunately remain so for many years

bought Ṁ25 of Interventions motiva... NO

(Put an initial bet of NO against all options to lower their probability from 50% to 20%... since 3 answers will be chosen, there will ultimately be around 300 percentage points to go around, so the average percentage across all answers should be around 16%. Besides this initial bet, I will avoid trading in this or other "New Cause Area" markets.)