Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?
Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)
Wild-animal welfare
Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation
Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC
Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc
Georgism (aka land value taxes)
Charter cities / affinity cities / network states
Civilizational-preservation bunkers
Climate geoengineeering
Preventing stable totalitarianism
Preventing S-Risks
Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")
Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts
Cryonics & brain-emulation research
Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research
Space governance / space colonization
Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness
Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

The three winning answers of this market will be determined by the research I do to resolve my other markets in this "New EA Cause Area" tag -- each of those ~20 markets asks if a given EA cause area will get $10M in funding between Oct 2023 and the start of 2030, and this market is about which three cause areas get the most funding in that time (doesn't matter if it's over or under $10M).

I'm excluding two "New EA Cause Area" markets from the answers listed above -- the Patient Philanthropy Fund, and "impact markets" like manifund -- since these are more like charitable-giving strategies than actual object-level cause areas.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

As for what exactly falls under the heading of each category above, please see the descriptions of each individual market in the "New EA Cause Area" tag!

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Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

The video posted by PauseAI on Twitter might as well have been a comedy sketch.

Why aren't the already popular EA cause areas included e.g. global health, factory farming, biorisk?While I believe many of the cause areas in this market are underrated by EA, I suspect they will unfortunately remain so for many years

(Put an initial bet of NO against all options to lower their probability from 50% to 20%... since 3 answers will be chosen, there will ultimately be around 300 percentage points to go around, so the average percentage across all answers should be around 16%. Besides this initial bet, I will avoid trading in this or other "New Cause Area" markets.)

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