Oh, didn't see this one yet. I'll add it to the list.

Check this market for the complete list for this year and other years.
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

oh it's BEFORE 2026. yeah not happening. should've bought more when it was at over 50%

China's moon program is moving at a very slow-and-steady pace; they are planning to land a man on the moon sometime in the 2030s, but don't have the rocket or the lander or any other components necessary for a moon landing in the next 2.5 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program

Meanwhile in the USA, the first upcoming NASA moon landing (using SpaceX Starship, among various other rockets/capsules/etc) is also very unlikely to happen by 2026, although they will probably get it done before 2030: https://manifold.markets/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land

Besides China and the USA, nobody else has credible plans to visit the moon anytime soon.

https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human

Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?

9% chance. Resolves YES if a human being steps foot on the moon on or before 11:59pm Eastern US time on December 31, 2025. Resolves NO if no human steps onto the moon by then. Orbits don’t count, nor do landings by a lander but no exiting and stepping onto the surface.

Should it resolve to yes if an American plants the flag of their nation before Jan 1 2026?

@MG4c6d Yeah, any country is fine