Pope Leo XIV has expressed that the Catholic Church has an obligation to respond to the digital revolution and the rise of AI (https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2025-05/pope-leo-xiv-addresses-cardinals-10-may-2025-vatican.html). However, he has not yet given his own quantitative estimate of how likely he thinks x-risk due to transformative AI is.
This market resolves YES if Pope Leo XIV publicly provides a quantitative estimate regarding the likelihood of existential risk due to AI, in any public statement, homily, or published document on or before January 1, 2026.
Resolution will be based on:
Official Vatican sources (e.g., press releases, transcripts, papal documents)
Or:
Confirmation by at least three reputable news outlets reporting such a statement.
Any p(doom) estimates using numerical language (e.g. “basically zero”, “under 1%”, “it's 50/50”) will count. Vague probabilistic language (e.g. “very likely”) without a clearly stated numerical or quantitative term will not count. The statement must refer specifically to AI-related existential risk.
Whether Pope Leo XIV shares a personal, official Vatican, or collective (e.g. weighted average of the p(doom) of the College of Cardinals) estimate, the market resolves YES. If he merely quotes an unrelated source, e.g. saying “Yann LeCun’s <0.01% estimate is far too low”, without expressing his own belief, the market resolves NO.
1,000@digory I appreciate the comment, but I think this is covered in the resolution rules. “Vague probabilistic language (e.g. “very likely”) without a clearly stated numerical or quantitative term will not count” and “The statement must refer specifically to AI-related existential risk.”
So if Pope Leo were to say something like “The Vatican believes there is no chance of AI x-risk because Christ will return to judge the living and the dead and His Kingdom will have no end,” that would count as a probabilistic claim (p(doom) = 0) tied explicitly to AI-related x-risk. But unless he makes that connection clearly and includes some sort of numerical language, it wouldn’t meet the market criteria.