Will Trump say something negative about Pope Leo XIV before May 8 2026?
Will Trump say something negative about Pope Leo XIV before May 8 2026?
27
100Ṁ938
2026
65%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before May 8, 2026, Donald Trump makes a public statement that is negative about Pope Leo XIV. A "negative statement" is defined as any public remark, whether verbal, written, or posted on social media, that criticizes, disparages, or expresses disapproval of Pope Leo XIV. The statement must be reported by reputable news sources to be considered valid for this market's resolution.

Background

Pope Leo XIV, born Robert Francis Prevost, was elected as the head of the Catholic Church on May 8, 2025, becoming the first American to hold the papacy. Prior to his election, he served as the Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and had an extensive pastoral career in Peru. (apnews.com)

Historically, Donald Trump has had contentious interactions with the papacy. In 2016, Pope Francis suggested that Trump's plan to build a border wall was "not Christian," to which Trump responded by calling the Pope's comments "disgraceful." (theguardian.com) Additionally, Trump has previously described Pope Francis as "a very political person." (cbsnews.com)

As of May 8, 2025, upon Pope Leo XIV's election, President Trump expressed enthusiasm, describing the event as a "great honor" for the United States and indicating his desire to meet with the new Pope. (reuters.com)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy