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MANIFOLD
Abdul El Sayed Margin Of Victory?
6
Ṁ15kṀ286
Nov 4
79%
El Sayed wins by any margin
72%
El Sayed 1pts+
66%
El Sayed 2pts+
58%
El Sayed 3pts+
50%
El Sayed 4pts+
44%
El Sayed 5pts+
37%
El Sayed 6pts+
29%
El Sayed 7pts+
17%
El Sayed 8pts+
11%
El Sayed 9pts+
8%
El Sayed 10pts+
6%
El Sayed 11pts+
5%
El Sayed 12pts+
2%
El Sayed 15pts+
6%
Mike Rogers 3pts+

#pts+ or more means #.000 or more. Eg. 2pts+ means Abdul’s Margin of victory is 2.000% or more.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the official certified general election results published by the Michigan Department of State / Michigan Board of State Canvassers. Can resolve early if reporting from Associated Press has a clear resolution.

Margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the percentage of the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed and the percentage received by Mike Rogers (i.e., El-Sayed % - Rogers %), rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.

multiple threshold options can resolve YES:

  • El Sayed wins: Resolves YES if Abdul El-Sayed receives more votes than Mike Rogers. Otherwise NO.

  • El Sayed Xpts+ (e.g., 1pts+, 2pts+, ..., 15pts+): Resolves YES if El-Sayed's vote share exceeds Rogers's vote share by $X.0$ percentage points or greater. (For instance, if El-Sayed wins by 4.2 points, options up through "El Sayed 4pts+" resolve YES, and "El Sayed 5pts+" and above resolve NO).

  • Mike Rogers 3pts+: Resolves YES if Mike Rogers's vote share exceeds Abdul El-Sayed's vote share by 3 percentage points or greater (Rogers % - El-Sayed % ≥ 3.0%). Otherwise NO.

US Politics
Politics
Elections
2026 Midterms
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