Resolves to %, 50/27/16/7/0 for 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th.
At Market close, I will create a ranked choice poll for 1 week and ask Manifold to rank their presidents in order from favourite to least favourite.
Resolves to %, 50/27/16/7/0 for 1st/2nd/3rd/4th/5th.
Ties for a position will mean I add up the points and divide by the number of the tie. So 2 people tied for first would be 77/2 =38.5 rounded to 39/38 sorted alphabetically.
These answers are final. Any death or new president before market close does not change anything.
Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market is for US Presidents only.
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Biden highly succeeded in passing legislation to provide military support to freedom states. Biden did not support military funding solely for Israel unless that funding was paired with support to protect Taiwan, Ukraine, and other free states.
In that sense, he was not blindly pro-Israel in the same way as some previous U.S. presidents, but rather focused on a broader, balanced approach to global security.
In addition, under his administration, the U.S. achieved its objectives in Syria: Assad fled to Russia, and Syria has become actually pro-American.
He won many other wars during his presidency. Highly successful. Obama lost the war Georgia-Russia in 2008, making Putin actually praised for his aggression.
What Joe Biden managed to do: he made America more independent by supporting electric vehicles. As a result, the U.S. became less dependent on oil imports and therefore stronger globally. Lower oil prices weakened the influence of oil-dependent states such as Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and others.
@Jack1 Manifold’s Favourite Living President? Manifold is not the USA.
We absolutely have different opinions from Americann voters and do not care whether the U.S. president’s skin color is black or red.
The U.S. praised its first Black president, but racial themes are a uniquely American focus. The rest of the world has very different priorities.
From a global perspective, Biden was actually more constructive for other countries and for positive U.S. leadership internationally than any other recent U.S. leader.
@MarioBeth I don’t think Joe Biden has a good reputation overseas. I believe he is viewed as too old and didn’t get a lot done policy wise. If you are really into foreign affairs and agree with his world view, you might like him, but I don’t see him as popular.
@Jack1 Obama did not “punish” Putin for the 2008 Georgia war in any direct or serious way. So he created a tyrant Putin, who started war in Europe and made grain prices world wide unacceptable - global famine.
Once in office, Obama pursued the so-called “reset” policy with Russia, aiming to improve relations rather than impose any penalties. So he actually created Putin the aggressor.
Under Obama:
There were no major sanctions imposed on Russia over Georgia invasion.
Russia gained more control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, no sanctions.
The U.S. focused on diplomacy and cooperation with Russia (like new world order, where Putin can attack neighbors).
Obama is liked mainly within the United States for his domestic policies (such as Medicacare subsidies). However, from a global perspective, his presidency was a disaster for many countries: increased global instability, the loss of U.S. leadership, rising global inflation, and numerous conflicts fueled by Russian- and China-backed military actions.
People care about whether big countries can destroy small democracies, eliminate independent states, and drive up food prices. The war in Ukraine led to global food shortages, contributing to famine, food shortages, political turmoil, and broader global instability.
Obama was actually in a position to stop Putin early on, but instead he effectively tolerated the aggression by imposing no meaningful punishment. This allowed Russia to continue occupying parts of Georgia and to persecute pro-American supporters there - despite Georgia having defeated corruption during the four years of the strongly pro-American presidency of Saakashvili.
@Jack1 All those 5 American presidents appear, from an international perspective, like characters from Idiocracy: extremely out of touch with the realities and life of people in other countries (Americans are globally treated as stupid, so no surprises).
Biden, however, managed to be less stupid, less disastrous. He surrounded himself with capable advisers who effectively shaped and guided his policies and decisions.
Because of his reliance on multiple competent advisers, Biden was a less harmful U.S. president for other countries than most recent leaders.
I also believe that, in terms of U.S. domestic policy, Biden performed reasonably not bad.
Snap shot in time but probably relevant to who would be Manifold's favorites https://manifold.markets/ShitakiIntaki/democrat-republican-spectrum-where
@Magnify Biden is much more successful than Obama. Obama lost the Georgian, Syrian, Iranian, Yemen, African wars n and actually Myanmar too. Biden hasn't lost wars, was highly successful and led USA to AI boom - lieder ridership in new era
@TheAllMemeingEye Not many traders yet
I personally think Because trump is also in them (and he’s a worse president) and Bush and the war, Bill might get a bit higher. Although it’s up to manifold to decide.
@TheAllMemeingEye Easily 2nd best. Bush killed a million people. Joe watched Roe v Wade fall and did nothing, along with doing nothing 98% of his term.
@realDonaldTrump 84% of Ugandans identifying as Christian. The majority of Christians in Uganda are Roman Catholic, followed by a significant Protestant population (mainly Anglican). There are also smaller groups of Pentecostals and Evangelicals.