Democrat - Republican spectrum, where do you identify yourself? [US centric poll]
Nov 13
Strongly agree with Democrats and disagree with Republicans
Side primarily with Democrats
Democratic leaning Independent
Independent, or take a mix of views from Democrats and Republicans
Republican leaning Independent
Side primarily with Republicans
Strongly agree with Republicans and disagree with Democrats
Other, none of the above please me enough to be selected
Abstain - Just show me the poll results, I am not disclosing anything about my politics

Do Manifold traders, as a population, have a selection bias when it comes to political parties?

Question for the data scientists and researchers. To what degree might there be a correlation between a trader selection bias and delayed calibration of prediction markets? I assume that markets are better calibrated over time and as a broader more diverse population trades in them and that even a homogenous population of traders will calibrate the market as time passes, but I wonder how much slower a market with a homogenous population of traders calibrates as compared to a diverse population. Maybe you only need one counter viewpoint to trade against to act as the catalyst for market calibration.

Before polls were a thing, I attempted this as a resolve to MKT market and most traders traded on the belief that the Manifold traders are overwhelmingly "left" however a resolve to MKT market a poll is not so I am trying again now that we have native polls.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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