Do Manifold traders, as a population, have a selection bias when it comes to political parties?
Question for the data scientists and researchers. To what degree might there be a correlation between a trader selection bias and delayed calibration of prediction markets? I assume that markets are better calibrated over time and as a broader more diverse population trades in them and that even a homogenous population of traders will calibrate the market as time passes, but I wonder how much slower a market with a homogenous population of traders calibrates as compared to a diverse population. Maybe you only need one counter viewpoint to trade against to act as the catalyst for market calibration.
Before polls were a thing, I attempted this as a resolve to MKT market and most traders traded on the belief that the Manifold traders are overwhelmingly "left" however a resolve to MKT market a poll is not so I am trying again now that we have native polls.
1,000
3.00I was not aware that polls autoclosed.
The intent was to leave this poll open indefinitely, however I suppose reposting the poll would allow/accommodate users shifting their position over time.
@traders Do you think periodic polling is better than a standing poll?
@mods I don't wish to poll spam, however I pose the same question to you as I have to "traders".
@ShitakiIntaki That ultimately depends on how good a standing poll is in providing snapshots of the past. And if it doesn't allow easy revoting, it isn't too good in this.
@ShitakiIntaki your poll assumes the line is one dimensional. It's at least a 2d grid with four corners.
@JeremyMitts Political compass is a neat model, but doesn't really fit with most people's self-descriptors (or, rather, requires some non-trivial conversion). I have noticed that, when I try to split my views according to the compass, it overindexes me as far more to the left than my self-identification would.
@b575 if it doesn't fit with their self descriptors then they are just ignorant. Labeling someone between left and right because they can't be bothered to actually examine their own beliefs is intellectual sloth. There are at least eight dimensions, if a person can't be bothered to evaluate four because it doesn't fit their pre-trained world view of two (black-or-white) that is perhaps something to think about in itself.
@JeremyMitts "All models are wrong, some models are useful". When people conflate their view to one axis, they're usually at least sufficiently aware of its being a conflation of many; with political compass, there's a real temptation to think the description is full-ish.
Besides, following the axis that is actually represented in many countries as a main source of competition has obvious benefits in and of itself. Like, for instance, if for many people their compass-level views changed little, but their position on Democrat-Republican spectrum flipped, that says something about the US parties.
@b575 following a lazy axis that is pretty much solely represented in most countries is perpetuating the harm that the two-party system enables. Fptp is nothing more than mob rule.
@JeremyMitts I assure you I am not a satirist but a CHRISTIAN. Keep closing your eyes - but you will see more of us. Because unlike atheist-materialists, we have kids instead of killing them.
@stardust this is beautifully done, I love it when someone really commits to the bit! I killed like 250 million of my own kids just this morning!