Do Manifold traders, as a population, have a selection bias when it comes to political parties?
Question for the data scientists and researchers. To what degree might there be a correlation between a trader selection bias and delayed calibration of prediction markets? I assume that markets are better calibrated over time and as a broader more diverse population trades in them and that even a homogenous population of traders will calibrate the market as time passes, but I wonder how much slower a market with a homogenous population of traders calibrates as compared to a diverse population. Maybe you only need one counter viewpoint to trade against to act as the catalyst for market calibration.
Before polls were a thing, I attempted this as a resolve to MKT market and most traders traded on the belief that the Manifold traders are overwhelmingly "left" however a resolve to MKT market a poll is not so I am trying again now that we have native polls.