*This circumstance is if the POTUS no longer has the powers of the Presidency due to the actions described from 3:00 to 3:47 of this CGP Grey video.

Will this circumstance cause Manifold to rule that markets that trigger, "when the President is no longer President," (or are similarly worded) have NOT triggered? In other words, would they still be President?

This market resolves YES when a Manifold market resolved by a moderator or staff member can be presented in these comments, and I can reasonably deduce based solely on the resolution of that market that Manifold's stance is that the POTUS is affirmatively the President while they maintain the title of the position but are indefinitely stripped of the powers of it. This market resolves NO if a market is presented with the converse situation. In the event of conflicting market resolutions being presented, this market resolves to the market first commented here by comment timestamp followed by discussion to convince me. If the first market presented cannot sufficiently convince me, then the second market by timestamp order is considered, and so on. I am the final judge of this market unless I fail to resolve it within what mods consider to be a 'reasonable amount of time.'

Additionally, this market can resolve YES or NO according to the authoritative ruling of a Manifold staff member in these comments. This is effectively free mana for Manifold staff as they have full influence over this market and they can manipulate it at their will. However, I expect this market to be used as binding precident should this constitutional crisis occur.

This market can resolve N/A if a reasonable argument showing that the premise of this market is flawed, but I am reluctant to exercise this ability unless absolutely necessary. I may not bet on this market.

• Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:

  • If it can be proved that another market was unresolved, it will count as presentable evidence for resolving this market.

• Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional criteria:

  • Authoritatively left unresolved: A market that is officially left unresolved by moderators or staff will now count as presentable evidence for resolving this market.