Has to be an event or consequence caused by AI that then leads to a recession. So a major hack of the big banks that causes a panic that leads to a recession would count. Also AI replacing so many jobs that there is mass unemployment that leads to a recession would also count. However, a simple bubble burst of AI stock leading to a recession would NOT count, as that is not AI doing an act that causes the recession; has to be a recession that results from AI actions or consequences of AI implementation. As recessions can have multiple causes, it just needs to be frequently cited as one of the primary causes based on media and scholarly understanding. I will make a judgment call if open to debate. I will not bet on the market.

A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This will be at any time up to December 31, 2030. Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year for declaration. If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).