Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
10
220Ṁ6712027
11%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this based on my reading and critical reviews. Really, I think that it will be obvious, but I'll take input from the community.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
32% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
57% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
67% chance
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
90% chance
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
14% chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
51% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
40% chance
Will there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
13% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
63% chance
Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?
81% chance