This market resolves as YES if there is a majority consensus among experts among scientists in the fields of neuroscience and quantum mechanics that some aspects of quantum consciousness are correct. For the purposes of this market, quantum consciousness means that quantum mechanics plays a role in how the cognition or consciousness works, that otherwise cannot be explained by the classical laws of physics. An example of a quantum consciousness theory is the microtubule theory proposed by Roger Penrose and Stuart Hameroff. However, the theory does not need to be comprehensive; it is sufficient to resolve YES if quantum mechanics to play a minor or supportive role in the brain.

An approximate 50% consensus among experts in these fields is necessary for the resolution to be YES.

Examples of scientific concepts with more than 50% consensus:

- The existence of dark matter

- The eventual heat-death of the universe

- Abiogenesis

- The universe being infinitely large

Examples of theories lacking sufficient consensus:

- Nuclear power being the best way to reduce greenhouse emissions

- String theory

Since scientific consensus is challenging to measure, relying on third-party polls of neuroscientists and physicists would be ideal. In the absence of such polls, the resolution would be based on a poll of Manifold’s opinion on the scientific consensus. Additional suggestions for resolving this market are welcome. 🙏