Market: https://manifold.markets/J00/will-israel-defy-an-order-by-the-in
Please read the description and comments on the market before voting.
Don't vote if you hold positions in the market, I will not count your vote if you do.
If an option in this poll receives an absolute majority of valid votes, I will resolve the market to that option (or ask mods in the case of "N/A"), otherwise, I will create a new poll without the option that revived the fewest votes.
1,000Voting YES.
The relevant orders are in paras 78-81 of this document: https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf
Most relate to not killing or traumatising Palestinians, and preserving evidence of doing so. You can make your own mind up as to whether that’s been occurring or not.
However, the uncontroverisially cut and dry one to me is para 79, which reads:
The Court is also of the view that Israel must take all measures within its power to prevent and punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide in relation to members of the Palestinian group in the Gaza Strip.
I am not aware of any punishment being levied against the Israeli people (including politicians) who advocate for genocide. In absence of that evidence, YES is the only appropriate conclusion.