For them to be famous, they have to have a Wikipedia page with 1000+ words (body text only, not subtitles, tables, captions, etc.) or a social media account with 1m+ followers/subscribers.
It has to be proven that the person is who they say they are. Vandalizing a Wikipedia page to increase a page's word count or using bots to increase a user's follower count is invalid.
The bet must occur before March 1, UTC.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Wikipedia pages, the bibliography section does not count as part of the main text when calculating the 1000+ word requirement.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The famous person themselves must make the bet - they cannot authorize someone else to bet on their account on their behalf.
@TheAllMemeingEye R.A.'s Manifold prediction market video is the reason I signed up to Manifold in the first place. Writer's name is permanently branded on the referral section of my profile.
@TheAllMemeingEye How come this user has almost 1500 referrals but only half a million mana?
@Quroe feels kinda surreal seeing manifold users in the comments lol, like 'what the hell you guys aren't meant to be on THIS website!'



Re "it has to be proven that the person is who they say they are": could the famous person authorize someone else to make a bet on their account on their behalf? e.g. @LuigiMangione
If you are a famous person, and you don't have the funding to capture the lion's share of this market's liquidity, I would like to provide you with the funding to get the most out of this market. We can strike a deal where we can all win.
Please private message me for more details. https://manifold.markets/Quroe
I am known for faithfully carrying out high mana value transactions on Manifold. See this example where I was the executor to a deal that ended a 3-way impasse in a high stakes Tontine-esque Manifold game show that tested contestants' endurance.
https://manifold.markets/Quroe/the-folded-accords-season-1?r=UXVyb2U
@CrypticQccZ @mods BTW, isn't this market potentially in contravention of the sites anti-DOXXing policies, I seem to remember there was an issue with that with the Chuck Tingle identity market.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Well the market rules says the person has to be "who they say they are" so i guess if you doxx a holder who doesn't want to reveal their identity it probably shouldn't count.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I take it back. Idiot that I am, I actually checked. I am just a section on a list of former Finnish Wikipedia adminstrators, and my section is only 269 words, and even that is almost exclusively quotation from myself. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi...
