For them to be famous, they have to have a Wikipedia page with 1000+ words (body text only, not subtitles, tables, captions, etc.) or a social media account with 1m+ followers/subscribers.
It has to be proven that the person is who they say they are. Vandalizing a Wikipedia page to increase a page's word count or using bots to increase a user's follower count is invalid.
The bet must occur before March 1, UTC.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Wikipedia pages, the bibliography section does not count as part of the main text when calculating the 1000+ word requirement.
Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The famous person themselves must make the bet - they cannot authorize someone else to bet on their account on their behalf.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ36,774 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23,832 | |
| 3 | Ṁ17,142 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6,158 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2,932 |
People are also trading
@Panfilo Don't @ traders for things that are not important to market resolution please. I consider this stealing everyone's attention
@SavioMak unless something changed, I’m pretty sure @ traders doesn’t have any particular different functionality than a regular comment (unless you’re the creator or a mod)
@Ziddletwix I believe it does. If you've traded and unfollowed (or set notifs to ignore normal comments) that ping should punch through. So yes, it wouldn't annoy most folks who already get notifs for every bit of banter, but it does signal those who desire more silence.
@Stralor i had to check as i haven't looked in a while but my reading of this code block is that the \@traders ping doesn't do anything unless you're the market creator or an admin/mod: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/b8117daabdedf0e4d429456d8839210352ef1493/backend/shared/src/notifications/create-new-contract-comment-notif.ts#L97C3-L97C5.
non-creators often use it but i don't think it's doing anything (which probably for the best, otherwise they'd try to come up with other ways to ping people)
@Stralor Does he want to be verified? I saw the video, but he also used an alias (kinda, I mean, jwils). I'm satisfied that I can verify them but if he wants to stay unverified that's ok too. Unsure if I should just pop it on or not, most people won't know what the verified badge is for as the username isn't really tied to a specific identity
Was fun watching the market play out!
@KevinBlaw See this comment chain. https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt#zdhv0yt7u5q
@No_uh I'm really hoping everybody treats him nicely here and that he sticks around. It seems like he's exploring the concept of prediction markets, and I feel this is a very unique first experience for most people. I intend to profit share with him.