MANIFOLD
Will a famous person bet on this market?
219
Ṁ10kṀ75k
Feb 28
54%
chance
10

For them to be famous, they have to have a Wikipedia page with 1000+ words (body text only, not subtitles, tables, captions, etc.) or a social media account with 1m+ followers/subscribers.

It has to be proven that the person is who they say they are. Vandalizing a Wikipedia page to increase a page's word count or using bots to increase a user's follower count is invalid.

The bet must occur before March 1, UTC.

  • Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Wikipedia pages, the bibliography section does not count as part of the main text when calculating the 1000+ word requirement.

  • Update 2026-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The famous person themselves must make the bet - they cannot authorize someone else to bet on their account on their behalf.

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I was gonna tag @writer but evidently not enough of y'all are subscribed to that magnificent hidden gem of a channel

@TheAllMemeingEye R.A.'s Manifold prediction market video is the reason I signed up to Manifold in the first place. Writer's name is permanently branded on the referral section of my profile.

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Quroe thats how i found manifold too

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 50% order

@TheAllMemeingEye How come this user has almost 1500 referrals but only half a million mana?

@Quroe feels kinda surreal seeing manifold users in the comments lol, like 'what the hell you guys aren't meant to be on THIS website!'

@realDonaldTrump Referrals used to only give M250

@Gen Ah, makes sense

I have to say this is a palpable incentive to get the wikipedia famous friends one has involved. But that seems an interesting test, do I want those wikipedia famous friends to judge me on my manifold hobby?

Re "it has to be proven that the person is who they say they are": could the famous person authorize someone else to make a bet on their account on their behalf? e.g. @LuigiMangione

@Robincvgr the person themself has to make the bet

If you are a famous person, and you don't have the funding to capture the lion's share of this market's liquidity, I would like to provide you with the funding to get the most out of this market. We can strike a deal where we can all win.

Please private message me for more details. https://manifold.markets/Quroe

I am known for faithfully carrying out high mana value transactions on Manifold. See this example where I was the executor to a deal that ended a 3-way impasse in a high stakes Tontine-esque Manifold game show that tested contestants' endurance.

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/the-folded-accords-season-1?r=UXVyb2U

This is an ingenious strategy to get famous people to pay attention to something you've made.

@RobinHanson I'll buy a substack subscription

Somebody better get famous for the sole purpose of resolving this yes.

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 40% order

@Velaris I've got two weeks...

@CrypticQccZ surely there's already someone famous enough on manifold tho

@CrypticQccZ @mods BTW, isn't this market potentially in contravention of the sites anti-DOXXing policies, I seem to remember there was an issue with that with the Chuck Tingle identity market.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 39% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Well the market rules says the person has to be "who they say they are" so i guess if you doxx a holder who doesn't want to reveal their identity it probably shouldn't count.

bought Ṁ100 YES

The winning play is obviously to be secretly famous and accumulate a huge YES position before revealing yourself. Maybe that’s Cryptic’s plan.

@moobunny There is an article on me in the finnish language parody version of wikipedia.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Well if that’s not fame I don’t know what is!

@moobunny i don't have a wikipedia page

that would be smart though

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I take it back. Idiot that I am, I actually checked. I am just a section on a list of former Finnish Wikipedia adminstrators, and my section is only 269 words, and even that is almost exclusively quotation from myself. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi...

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