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MANIFOLD
Will an infamous person bet on this market?
43
Ṁ1kṀ5.9k
resolved Apr 28
Resolved
NO

This market resolves Yes if at least one of the people who bets on it is verified as a real specific human being with a Wikipedia article that includes a "controversies," "scandals," "criticism," or synonimous section. The section must predate the creation of this market, and if there is substantive controversy about whether a word in a heading is a synonym for one of those three words, I will divest before closing and resolving.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. The spririt of the market is about the person in question being a figure of severe public ethical negativity and/or division. So a famous critic who has a vaguely labelled "criticism" section about their work would not count.

  • Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To verify that a bettor is a real infamous person, acceptable proof includes: a DM or post from a verified account on another platform, a Verified badge on Manifold, or similar credible confirmation.

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What's the verification criteria for someone to resolve this market YES? Fwiw I've checked everyone I believe could resolve this and nobody's articles match the criteria.

@bagofsprite I don't understand your question. Here's an example although I admit the public figure is farely obscure:

@Panfilo To resolve this market as YES, how would you verify that someone is really who they claim to be? What would you need as proof?

@bagofsprite DM/post from a verified account elsewhere, Verified badge here on Manifold, a text telling me I’m handsome, the regular stuff.

@AviEisenberg I'm afraid it needs to be a personal Wikipedia article that predates this market!

boughtṀ40YES
bought Ṁ5 YES

Is there a minimum length requirement for the wiki page like the last market?

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't think so. It has to be a normal Wikipedia article with a section as described that predates the market's creation.

Nobody deep enough on YES yet to put a bounty out...

@GazDownright I don’t think I have a Wikipedia page haha

@Tumbles hm, @Panfilo moved that goal post after the @. That said, don't you guys think it's time Tumbles got one?

@GazDownright what the fuck are you talking about? The description has no edits.

@Panfilo weird, for some reason I didn't clock a description the first time I was here. My bad.

reposted

Now this is a twist.