Will an infamous person bet on this market?

Question

This market resolves Yes if at least one of the people who bets on it is verified as a real specific human being with a Wikipedia article that includes a "controversies," "scandals," "criticism," or synonimous section. The section must predate the creation of this market, and if there is substantive controversy about whether a word in a heading is a synonym for one of those three words, I will divest before closing and resolving.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. The spririt of the market is about the person in question being a figure of severe public ethical negativity and/or division. So a famous critic who has a vaguely labelled "criticism" section about their work would not count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (35 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).