When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%. This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected. It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares). I have a long list of higher priorities, and I haven't done a deep dive to determine the difficulty of this. However, I am an experienced software engineer who is very comfortable working in Typescript.
Sister market about whether I in particular will submit such a change: https://manifold.markets/SimonWestlake/when-will-i-create-a-pr-to-allow-re
Update 2025-09-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It does not need to be my submission. Any implementation of this feature deployed on the site will resolve the relevant date range YES.
1,000People are also trading
I'm going to have this market auto-close after each checkpoint, to remind myself both to resolve and to consider working on this before the next checkpoint.
@traders I have edited this market to allow positive resolution if anybody successfully lands this change, in order to dramatically reduce the risk of betting YES.
This edit occurred within 10 minutes of the market's creation. @4fa is the only trader who many be negatively impacted by this, but as of now they still have the ability to undo their NO bets without penalty.
The older sister market has some discussion of the main technical challenge, and what my worst-case solution would probably look like: https://manifold.markets/SimonWestlake/when-will-i-create-a-pr-to-allow-re