Will the UK enter a recession during 2024?
15
82
1k
2025
25%
chance

Resolution criteria is whether the start of a recession as declared by the ONS will have occurred during 2024. We will wait until Q4 data has been released by the ONS so this will not resolve until early in 2025.

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Additional clarification - if it goes positive now, then negative in Q4, will you wait until q1 2025 data is in to resolve (since it might have entered a recession in 2024, as ONS will eventually declare)?

@Ramble yes that's correct

To be clear, the fact that we're in a recession that started last year means we need to leave the recession and then go back into it for this to resolve yes, right?

@Ramble that's a good clarification- the start has to be during 2024 as per the title

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@IsarBhattacharjee That makes it quite a lot less likely... It's not impossible that we'll see slightly negative growth all year and never leave the recession we started in Q3 2023!

@SimonGrayson yep tbf when created the 2023 recession was v non-obvious but the wording was already set so felt better to run the resolution this way rather than change the title

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