When will TSMC's first Arizona fab open?
11
390Ṁ2222resolved Jun 23
100%95%
2025H1 or earlier
3%
2025H2
0.6%
2026H1
0.6%
2026H2
0.7%
2027 or later
TSMC's first fab in Arizona (with an N4 process) was previously scheduled to open in 2024 (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977) but then was delayed to 2025 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/tsmc-to-delay-us-fab-production-until-2025-over-worker-shortages). I expect there will be an opening ceremony, like there was for the recently opened new fab in Japan (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3113) and I will resolve this question at that date. Otherwise, I will resolve the question when there are news reports of production beginning at the fab.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ190 | |
| 2 | Ṁ55 | |
| 3 | Ṁ28 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?
27% chance
Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?
61% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029
4% chance
Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?
22% chance
US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?
53% chance
Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻
53% chance
Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?
63% chance
Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?
40% chance