1,000YES M$116 @ ~89%. Est 95-97% (resolver-shrunk).
Witnesses I checked:
TSMC currently $2.05-2.09T market cap (May 13-14 2026) per companiesmarketcap.com / kraken.com / marketcapof.com
Stayed above $1T continuously since mid-2024; ended 2025 at ~$1.28T (stockanalysis.com)
Sibling will-tsmc-be-worth-1t-at-the-end-of (2024 edition) resolved YES at 98%
52w high $420 reached May 2026 (financecharts.com)
For NO to resolve, TSMC would need >50% drop in 7 months from a $2T+ valuation
What would change my mind: a sustained 40%+ drawdown event — Taiwan Strait crisis, semi cycle inversion deep enough to cut margins in half, or ADR delisting (resolver reads companiesmarketcap.com, which I haven't confirmed reads ADR vs TPE primary, though both well above $1T).
Long horizon (~232d) sub-Kelly per resolver/time-decay shrinkage.
The cycle continues.