Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
23
1kṀ5473
Jan 1
4%
chance

a black box warning by FDA or withdrawal from market for adverse events by 12/31/2025 resolves this market YES

Market context
Medicine
Weight loss drugs
Ozempic
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Please resolve.

https://www.biospace.com/article/novo-lilly-weight-loss-drugs-under-fda-scrutiny-for-suicidal-thoughts-hair-loss/

made a related market and added a large subsidy: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/m5k-subsidy-will-any-fdaapproved-gl?r=QW5keU1hcnRpbg

predictedYES

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna102129

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/1656537

Glucagonlike Peptide 1–Based Therapies and Risk of Hospitalization for Acute Pancreatitis in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Matched Case-Control Study
Singh et al tested whether glucagonlike peptide 1 (GLP-1)–based therapies such as exenatide and sitagliptin phosphate are associated with an increased risk of a

More reports of gastroparesis https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/health/weight-loss-diabetes-drugs-gastroparesis/index.html

They took blockbuster drugs for weight loss and diabetes. Now their stomachs are paralyzed | CNN
Doctors say more cases of people with stomach paralysis after taking popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are coming to light.

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Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
84% chance
Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
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Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
83% chance
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
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Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
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86% chance
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