Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
Medicine•Weight loss drugs•Ozempic
14
90
Ṁ343
2026
46%
chance

a black box warning by FDA or withdrawal from market for adverse events by 12/31/2025 resolves this market YES

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.biospace.com/article/novo-lilly-weight-loss-drugs-under-fda-scrutiny-for-suicidal-thoughts-hair-loss/

bought Ṁ10 of NO

made a related market and added a large subsidy: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/m5k-subsidy-will-any-fdaapproved-gl?r=QW5keU1hcnRpbg

predicts YES

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna102129

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/1656537

Glucagonlike Peptide 1–Based Therapies and Risk of Hospitalization for Acute Pancreatitis in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Matched Case-Control Study
Singh et al tested whether glucagonlike peptide 1 (GLP-1)–based therapies such as exenatide and sitagliptin phosphate are associated with an increased risk of a

More reports of gastroparesis https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/health/weight-loss-diabetes-drugs-gastroparesis/index.html

They took blockbuster drugs for weight loss and diabetes. Now their stomachs are paralyzed | CNN
Doctors say more cases of people with stomach paralysis after taking popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are coming to light.

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