Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025
21
1kṀ3473
Jan 1
7%
chance

a black box warning by FDA or withdrawal from market for adverse events by 12/31/2025 resolves this market YES

Medicine
Ozempic
Weight loss drugs
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?
43% chance
Which GLP-1 drug will have the highest US market share by revenue on December 1, 2025?
Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?
38% chance
Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
15% chance
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
83% chance
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
30% chance
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
78% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
81% chance
[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...
Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?
15% chance
Sort by:

Please resolve.

https://www.biospace.com/article/novo-lilly-weight-loss-drugs-under-fda-scrutiny-for-suicidal-thoughts-hair-loss/

made a related market and added a large subsidy: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/m5k-subsidy-will-any-fdaapproved-gl?r=QW5keU1hcnRpbg

predictedYES

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna102129

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/1656537

Glucagonlike Peptide 1–Based Therapies and Risk of Hospitalization for Acute Pancreatitis in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Matched Case-Control Study
Singh et al tested whether glucagonlike peptide 1 (GLP-1)–based therapies such as exenatide and sitagliptin phosphate are associated with an increased risk of a

More reports of gastroparesis https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/health/weight-loss-diabetes-drugs-gastroparesis/index.html

They took blockbuster drugs for weight loss and diabetes. Now their stomachs are paralyzed | CNN
Doctors say more cases of people with stomach paralysis after taking popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are coming to light.

People are also trading

Will either Lada Nuzhan or Jose Luis Ricon give in and inject semaglutide/tirzepatide at least 3 times before EOY 2025?
43% chance
Which GLP-1 drug will have the highest US market share by revenue on December 1, 2025?
Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?
38% chance
Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
15% chance
Before 2033, will semaglutide be shown to improve lifespan, when prescribed to overweight people?
83% chance
Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
30% chance
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
78% chance
Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027
81% chance
[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...
Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?
15% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy