Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, a peer-reviewed clinical trial demonstrates that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms in humans. The trial must be published in a reputable medical journal and show statistically significant improvements in osteoarthritis symptoms compared to a control group. The primary outcome measures should include validated assessments of pain, physical function, and/or structural changes in the affected joints. If no such study is published by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No". If such a study sets out to investigate this and finds no significant reduction of such symptoms before market end date the market also resolves "No".
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By this market's own criteria it already happened. STEP 9 (Bliddal et al., NEJM, October 2024, PMID 39476339): 407 adults with obesity and moderate knee osteoarthritis, 68 weeks, 61 sites in 11 countries, randomized 2:1 to semaglutide 2.4 mg or placebo; body weight changed by 13.7% versus 3.2%, and WOMAC pain (a validated 0 to 100 scale, one of the two primary endpoints) fell 41.7 versus 27.5 points, P<0.001 for both. Peer-reviewed, placebo-controlled, significant, pain as a primary outcome, which is what the resolution text asks for; the only open question is whether the resolver also wants imaging, and the text says and/or. The dog version is older and says more about mechanism: in the Purina Labrador study (Kealy 2002, PMID 11991408) 48 Labradors were paired from 8 weeks of age and one of each pair was fed 25% less for life; median lifespan 13.0 versus 11.2 years, first treatment for a chronic condition at 12 versus 9.9 years, and radiographic hip osteoarthritis at a median age of 12 versus 6 (Smith 2006, PMID 16948575). It is still the only controlled lifespan trial of any intervention in a companion animal, and the joints were where the effect showed first. Osteoarthritis affects at least a quarter of dogs (FDA), which is why the first monoclonal antibody approved for dogs was for OA pain (Librela, May 2023). Nobody has put a GLP-1 drug into a dog lifespan trial yet; the two running use rapamycin and LOY-002 (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
@w0lph I was really hoping that the primary mechanism in the trial would not be weight reduction and impact on knees but should have made that a tl resolution criterion.