81
651
1.4K
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if I find strong evidence that Tom Cruise has gone on a cruise before the end of the year. Otherwise resolves NO.

(Doesn't count any instances of Tom Cruising before market creation.)

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predicted NO

Is this the first definition or the second definition? Does it have to be for pleasure or if he's filming an action movie on a boat, does that count?

@EliTyre He must have actually been on a cruise, not just have been cruising. (Otherwise any plane ride would count.)

If it's for a movie that's fine. But it has to have been a real cruise, not just a soundstage mocked up to look like one.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing What if he's traveling on a military cruiser. Would that count?

@EliTyre Hmm. I think I'd have to say no.

Justin Timberlake front property

Will Taylor Swifter?

bought Ṁ20 of YES

what if its... like... during a movie shoot? that's still cruising... right? 😉

@KyleWan If he actually cruises, sure.

He went on a cruise in his own yacht back in 2021

(Doesn't count any instances of Tom Cruising before market creation.)

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what if he cruises for gay sex

@taco No.

predicted NO

Does it count if he goes on a trip on his own/some other famous person's private yacht?

@DavidMathers Oh, hmm. As per the title I'd say yes, but as per the description I'd say no. I failed to consider the difference between the verb "to cruise" and the much more restrictive noun "a cruise".

The title is obviously the primary purpose of this market, so I feel like I should edit the description to match it, but that would likely increase the probability a bit and seems unfair to NO traders.

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