Will trans ideology lose power/popularity relative to other leftist causes by the beginning of 2028?

1kṀ3668

resolved Feb 28

Resolved

N/A

ALL

This is a companion market to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o, in order to control for the chance that trans ideology was going to drop off in popularity regardless of any changes on Twitter.

If Elon Musk buys Twitter and changes its de facto content moderation policies to be less restrictive on criticism of the trans movement, this market resolves N/A.

Otherwise, this market resolves based on my entirely subjective judgement of whether, at the beginning of 2028, the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes. I'll consult the community before resolving, in case other people have had different experiences from me.

Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Resolution criteria updated: The market will resolve N/A immediately, regardless of changes to Twitter's content moderation policies. (AI summary of creator comment)

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@mods Please resolve this N/A, the website won't let me do it.

Lol that AI summary is terrible, it does not understand what this market is.

I think this should resolve N/A now, does anyone believe it should not?

sold Ṁ67 YES

@IsaacKing As for what's written in the header it's a definite YES. However, given what's written in the description, you are right. The Elon Musk condition has been thoroughly satisfied.

@stardust Yeah IDK why I didn't put the condition in the title, probably should have.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@IsaacKing yeah this should probably N/A at this point. i think by any metric the N/A condition's been reached

Out of all the dumb leftist ideas, trying to convince us that men can become women and women can become men is certainly one of them.

This market should resolve to N/A. Intentional misgendering is no longer considered hate speech by Twitter policy, and “cis” or “cisgender” is considered a slur.

Twitter reinstated the anti-misgendering policy this year: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/02/x-quietly-revived-anti-misgendering-policy-that-musk-dropped-last-year/. Except, the policy has changed since the Ars Technica article was published. If you compare February (https://web.archive.org/web/20240229220758/https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/abusive-behavior) and June (https://web.archive.org/web/20240619222133/https://help.x.com/en/rules-and-policies/abusive-behavior), you can see they have prefixed the rule with, "Where required by local laws, [...]"

The word "cisgender" is apparently even more banned than before (https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/14/on-elons-whim-x-now-treats-cisgender-as-a-slur/):

Since last June, X owner Elon Musk has claimed that the words “cis” and “cisgender” are “considered slurs” on the platform. But only more recently have these words triggered full-screen pop-ups warning users that their post might be a violation of platform rules. According to TechCrunch’s testing, this pop-up only seems to appear when using the mobile app.

Shouldn't this resolve N/A?

predictedYES

@CodeSolder Have their content moderation policies been meaningfully changed?

Yes

How would this resolve if trans movement achieves most of its goals and so becomes less relevant relative to other causes? (not that I think it is likely by 2028, but still)

predictedYES

That would count as a NO. For example, if acceptance of trans people becomes as ubiquitous as acceptance of gay people and no one argues about it anymore, that's trans ideology becoming more popular, not less.

@IsaacKing What are some examples of past movements which had lost significant ground relative to other causes?

I don’t think so, I’d expect rates of transition to continue to increase in the near term future. Plus, ridiculous as it is, the current gender ideology is currently helping trans people get what they want, so it’s not going to go away until someone figures out something more reasonable which accomplishes the same objectives.