This is a companion market to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o, in order to control for the chance that trans ideology was going to drop off in popularity regardless of any changes on Twitter.

If Elon Musk buys Twitter and changes its de facto content moderation policies to be less restrictive on criticism of the trans movement, this market resolves N/A.

Otherwise, this market resolves based on my entirely subjective judgement of whether, at the beginning of 2028, the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes. I'll consult the community before resolving, in case other people have had different experiences from me.

• Update 2025-08-01 (PST): - Resolution criteria updated: The market will resolve N/A immediately, regardless of changes to Twitter's content moderation policies. (AI summary of creator comment)