📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
Standard
95
Ṁ20k
Oct 16
98.5%
Venezuela
96%
Israel
91%
United States
83%
Colombia
77%
Georgia
65%
Iran
64%
India
58%
Indonesia
52%
Greece
48%
Slovakia
45%
Italy
43%
Hungary
39%
Ireland
38%
Egypt
37%
Netherlands
35%
Honduras
35%
United Kingdom
33%
Philippines
28%
Lesotho
25%
Czech Republic

Resolved monthly throughout 2024 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:

https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en

I haven’t been able to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.

Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2024 with no protests that large.

Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Repeat countries with active protests marked NA. Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.

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The data entry finally caught up!

Venezuela did not resolve YES because according to CPT, there were not >10K participants in the protests.

These markets did resolve YES:

Bangladesh

Job quota protest July 2024 >10,000

Economic

Political

Corruption

Three weeks (paused starting July 22 and resumed July 29)Partly free  

Trigger Dhaka court reinstated quota for government jobs (previously abolished in 2018 due to student protests).

Motivation Pushing the government to abolish the quota, which reserves 30 percent of government jobs to family members of those who fought in Bangladesh’s independence movement, and demanding that the government select candidates on merit. Protesters believe that the quota is discriminatory because it disproportionally benefits supporters of the Awami League party, which led the independence movement.

Key participants Students

Outcomes On July 22, the Supreme Court ruled that the war veterans’ quota be reduced to five percent. The government accepted the ruling the next day on July 23. More than 250 people, including protestors and police were killed during the protests. On August 5, protestors overran the prime minister’s palace and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned from her position and fled the country, ending her fifteen-year rule.

Pakistan

Bannu peace march July 2024 >10,000

Economic

Political

Corruption

Active Partly free  

Trigger Militant attack in Bannu on July 15, which killed eight people.

Motivation Initially, protesting against Pakistan’s military operation to root out militants along Afghan border. Protesters are demanding peace after twenty years of military operations in the region. Also protesting the actions of the Pakistani military after they fired on protesters.

Key participants General public

Outcomes No policy/leadership change. The Pakistani military opened fire on protestors, leading to the death of at least one person.

France

Protest against National Rally June 2024 >100,000

Economic

Political

Corruption

2 days (June 15 and June 23)Free  

TriggerSnap parliamentary elections called by President Emmanuel Macron.

MotivationProtesting the National Rally (NR) and calling on citizens to block the party from gaining power in the elections. In a second protest, criticizing the NR’s attitudes toward women’s rights.

Key participantsGeneral public, women’s rights groups

OutcomesNo policy/leadership change. In July 2024, the National Rally failed to win the majority in the parliament.

These would have resolved yes, but the MARKET DOES NOT EXIST:

Nigeria

End Bad Governance protest August 2024 >100,000

Economic

Political

Corruption

Ten days Partly free  

Trigger Inspired by anti-tax protests in Kenya. Growing economic hardship; inflation rate in July 2024 was the highest it had been in Nigeria in twenty-eight years.

Motivation Protesting President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, which have included ending currency controls, higher interest rates, and partial removal of electricity and fuel subsidies. Protesters view Tinubu’s reforms as imposing unnecessary economic hardship on ordinary citizens.

Key participants General public

Outcomes No policy/leadership change. Tinubu made a televised address calling for an end to the protests and offering to open up dialogue with demonstrators. Police cracked down on protestors, leading to the death of at least twenty two people.

Kenya

Anti-tax protestJ une 2024 >10,000

Economic

Political

Corruption

Active Partly free  

Trigger Approval of the Kenya Finance Bill 2024 by the parliament, which proposed a new tax system to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes.

Motivation Protesters intially called for the government to reject the bill. They have since called for the resignation of President William Ruto.

Key participants General public, youth

Outcomes On June 26, Ruto announced that he would not sign the finance bill. On July 25, the National Assembly rejected the bill in its entirety. On July 11, Ruto fired his cabinet members, then announced new cabinet nominations on July 24. These nominations include members of the opposition. Since the start of the protest, at least fifty people have been killed.

reposted

Still no update. Extended into mid-August but will keep checking.

Still no updates on the protest Carnagie logged for June....

Resolution for May

tldr: none with existing markets.

Mexico

Anti-AMLO protest

May 2024

>10,000

 

Trigger
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has called to defund the country’s independent electoral agencies ahead of the presidential election on June 2, 2024.

Motivation
Oppose AMLO and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate running for president under AMLO’s Morena party. Express support for opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Call for the defense of the country’s independent electoral agencies.

Key participants
Opposition supporters

Outcomes
No policy/leadership change in response to protest.

Taiwan

Bluebird Movement against parliamentary reforms
May 2024
>10,000

Trigger
The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party passed legislation in Parliament giving lawmakers power to ask the military, private companies, or individuals to disclose information deemed relevant by parliamentarians. The law gives Parliament power to punish those who fail to comply with these requests. It also criminalizes contempt of Parliament by government officials and requires the president to give regular reports to Parliament and answer lawmakers’ questions. Several Kuomintang senior officials have visited China this year to keep open lines of communication as China refuses to talk with President Lai Ching-te or the Democratic Progressive Party, claiming they are "separatists." Members and supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party fear collusion between the Kuomintang and China—although the Kuomintang denies being pro-China.


Motivation
Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party protested against the bill, which they say was railroaded through the voting process by lawmakers and lacks adequate checks and balances to prevent abuse. They say the bill could undermine national security, as it would force government officials to disclose critical information of value to China.


Key participants
Democratic Progressive Party supporters


Outcomes

Lai and the cabinet rejected the bill and sent it back for constitutional review.

Kenya isn't included but would resolve yes

Feel free to add it. Resolution source did not record any protests in Kenya as of May 2024.

More on Spain, because it's interesting:

Trigger: Protesters claim that Spain’s tourism model does not benefit the Canary Islands and instead overruns them with tourists. Environmental groups say that tourists overcrowding the island are harming both local residents and the environment.

Motivation: Protest not against tourists coming to the Canary Islands, but against SpainÆs tourism policies. Demand the authorities limit the number of visitors to the Canary Islands and introduce an eco-tax to help the environment.

Key participants: Canary Islands residents

Outcomes: No policy or leadership change in response to the protests.

Resolution for April:

Resolves YES (protest >10K people):
Spain

Already resolved but otherwise qualifies:
Argentina

New protest with <10K people:
Afghanistan

Armenia

Benin

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Brazil

Mexico

Niger

Russia

Dang still no update for April. Someone quit? Bumping out the close date on this market.

@BlueDragon And just like that it’s updated! Closing temporarily while I resolve for April.

Website is currently down. Will resolve and reopen when it’s back up.

@BlueDragon updated URL & extending market (no update today).

Adjusting the close date to reflect when the next round of countries will likely be added, once those markets are resolved I'll reset for June, and follow this pattern going forward.

@BlueDragon So the market closes and any qualifying countries resolve YES, then the market is reopened?

Currently we’re still waiting for the update for March.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #d49571ddcc76 YES

oops this was me button mashing as I attempted to resolve

bought Ṁ40 Answer #d49571ddcc76 YES

Place your bets before the official monthly data update, likely next week!

Updated for February:

Mexico

India

Hungary (no bets)

Updated for January. Iraq, Poland and Somalia had protests that peaked with > 10,000 participants, but we didn’t bet on them.

Resolved YES for Germany.


January 2024>1,000

GermanyAnti-AfD protest

January 2024>1,000,000

Time spanActive

TriggerReports that a group of AfD officials met with neo-Nazis at a hotel in Potsdam to discuss the possibility of a mass deportation scheme. Holocaust Memorial Day. Regional elections.

MotivationDenounce the AfD and Nazism.

Key participantsGeneral public

OutcomesNo policy/leadership change in response to the protests. The AfD lost a runoff election in the Saale-Orla district of Thuringia on January 28.

@BlueDragon also Australia? It looks like there's a typo, it says peak size "1,0000" which could be a typo away from 1,000 or 10,000

@benshindel Yep, thanks, possibly also Australia, which no one bet on ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.