Resolved monthly throughout 2024 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
I haven’t been able to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2024 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Repeat countries with active protests marked NA. Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
Related questions
Resolution for May
tldr: none with existing markets.
Mexico
Anti-AMLO protest
May 2024
>10,000
Trigger
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has called to defund the country’s independent electoral agencies ahead of the presidential election on June 2, 2024.
Motivation
Oppose AMLO and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate running for president under AMLO’s Morena party. Express support for opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Call for the defense of the country’s independent electoral agencies.
Key participants
Opposition supporters
Outcomes
No policy/leadership change in response to protest.
Taiwan
Bluebird Movement against parliamentary reforms
May 2024
>10,000
Trigger
The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party passed legislation in Parliament giving lawmakers power to ask the military, private companies, or individuals to disclose information deemed relevant by parliamentarians. The law gives Parliament power to punish those who fail to comply with these requests. It also criminalizes contempt of Parliament by government officials and requires the president to give regular reports to Parliament and answer lawmakers’ questions. Several Kuomintang senior officials have visited China this year to keep open lines of communication as China refuses to talk with President Lai Ching-te or the Democratic Progressive Party, claiming they are "separatists." Members and supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party fear collusion between the Kuomintang and China—although the Kuomintang denies being pro-China.
Motivation
Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party protested against the bill, which they say was railroaded through the voting process by lawmakers and lacks adequate checks and balances to prevent abuse. They say the bill could undermine national security, as it would force government officials to disclose critical information of value to China.
Key participants
Democratic Progressive Party supporters
Outcomes
Lai and the cabinet rejected the bill and sent it back for constitutional review.
More on Spain, because it's interesting:
Trigger: Protesters claim that Spain’s tourism model does not benefit the Canary Islands and instead overruns them with tourists. Environmental groups say that tourists overcrowding the island are harming both local residents and the environment.
Motivation: Protest not against tourists coming to the Canary Islands, but against SpainÆs tourism policies. Demand the authorities limit the number of visitors to the Canary Islands and introduce an eco-tax to help the environment.
Key participants: Canary Islands residents
Outcomes: No policy or leadership change in response to the protests.
@BlueDragon So the market closes and any qualifying countries resolve YES, then the market is reopened?
oops this was me button mashing as I attempted to resolve
Updated for January. Iraq, Poland and Somalia had protests that peaked with > 10,000 participants, but we didn’t bet on them.
Resolved YES for Germany.
January 2024>1,000
GermanyAnti-AfD protest
January 2024>1,000,000
Time spanActive
TriggerReports that a group of AfD officials met with neo-Nazis at a hotel in Potsdam to discuss the possibility of a mass deportation scheme. Holocaust Memorial Day. Regional elections.
MotivationDenounce the AfD and Nazism.
Key participantsGeneral public
OutcomesNo policy/leadership change in response to the protests. The AfD lost a runoff election in the Saale-Orla district of Thuringia on January 28.
@BlueDragon also Australia? It looks like there's a typo, it says peak size "1,0000" which could be a typo away from 1,000 or 10,000
Resolved based on the Carnagie Foundation tracker, not media reports, but there are some reports of mass protests that meet the criteria:
https://news.yahoo.com/mass-protests-slovakia-against-pro-095200726.html
https://news.yahoo.com/german-farmers-tractors-stage-mass-105735176.html
@PS thanks for the feedback. I revised the title. The point is that it doesn’t include protests that started in 2023.