oops this was me button mashing as I attempted to resolve

Place your bets before the official monthly data update, likely next week!

Updated for February:

Mexico

India

Hungary (no bets)

Updated for January. Iraq, Poland and Somalia had protests that peaked with > 10,000 participants, but we didn’t bet on them.

Resolved YES for Germany.

January 2024>1,000

GermanyAnti-AfD protest

January 2024>1,000,000

Time spanActive

TriggerReports that a group of AfD officials met with neo-Nazis at a hotel in Potsdam to discuss the possibility of a mass deportation scheme. Holocaust Memorial Day. Regional elections.

MotivationDenounce the AfD and Nazism.

Key participantsGeneral public

OutcomesNo policy/leadership change in response to the protests. The AfD lost a runoff election in the Saale-Orla district of Thuringia on January 28.

@BlueDragon also Australia? It looks like there's a typo, it says peak size "1,0000" which could be a typo away from 1,000 or 10,000

@benshindel Yep, thanks, possibly also Australia, which no one bet on ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

https://news.yahoo.com/mass-protest-madrid-against-amnesty-151130625.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/argentina-strike-protest-javier-milei

Resolved based on the Carnagie Foundation tracker, not media reports, but there are some reports of mass protests that meet the criteria:

https://news.yahoo.com/mass-protests-slovakia-against-pro-095200726.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2024/01/17/thousands-protest-in-germany-after-far-right-party-discusses-mass-deportation-of-foreign-nationals/

https://news.yahoo.com/german-farmers-tractors-stage-mass-105735176.html

So, is this market about the next protest or about any protests during 2024? Seems the title and the description contradict each other...

@PS thanks for the feedback. I revised the title. The point is that it doesn’t include protests that started in 2023.

@BlueDragon Thanks. I think "in what countries" instead of "in what country" would be even clearer.

@PS 👍 done

Does China include Hong Kong/Macao?

@Ramble I think it should

Cool market