📢✊In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
51
4.0k
Jun 13
95%
Hungary
89%
United States
85%
Georgia
81%
France
78%
United Kingdom
74%
Netherlands
73%
Iran
66%
Colombia
63%
Italy
61%
Greece
60%
Slovakia
50%
Philippines
48%
Egypt
45%
Ireland
45%
China
39%
Indonesia
39%
Honduras
29%
Lesotho
27%
Czech Republic
20%
Russia

Resolved monthly throughout 2024 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:

https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en

Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2024 with no protests that large.

Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Repeat countries with active protests marked NA. Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.

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More on Spain, because it's interesting:

Trigger: Protesters claim that Spain’s tourism model does not benefit the Canary Islands and instead overruns them with tourists. Environmental groups say that tourists overcrowding the island are harming both local residents and the environment.

Motivation: Protest not against tourists coming to the Canary Islands, but against SpainÆs tourism policies. Demand the authorities limit the number of visitors to the Canary Islands and introduce an eco-tax to help the environment.

Key participants: Canary Islands residents

Outcomes: No policy or leadership change in response to the protests.

Resolution for April:

Resolves YES (protest >10K people):
Spain

Already resolved but otherwise qualifies:
Argentina

New protest with <10K people:
Afghanistan

Armenia

Benin

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Brazil

Mexico

Niger

Russia

Dang still no update for April. Someone quit? Bumping out the close date on this market.

@BlueDragon And just like that it’s updated! Closing temporarily while I resolve for April.

Website is currently down. Will resolve and reopen when it’s back up.

@BlueDragon updated URL & extending market (no update today).

Adjusting the close date to reflect when the next round of countries will likely be added, once those markets are resolved I'll reset for June, and follow this pattern going forward.

@BlueDragon So the market closes and any qualifying countries resolve YES, then the market is reopened?

Currently we’re still waiting for the update for March.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #d49571ddcc76 YES

oops this was me button mashing as I attempted to resolve

bought Ṁ40 Answer #d49571ddcc76 YES

Place your bets before the official monthly data update, likely next week!

Updated for February:

Mexico

India

Hungary (no bets)

Updated for January. Iraq, Poland and Somalia had protests that peaked with > 10,000 participants, but we didn’t bet on them.

Resolved YES for Germany.


January 2024>1,000

GermanyAnti-AfD protest

January 2024>1,000,000

Time spanActive

TriggerReports that a group of AfD officials met with neo-Nazis at a hotel in Potsdam to discuss the possibility of a mass deportation scheme. Holocaust Memorial Day. Regional elections.

MotivationDenounce the AfD and Nazism.

Key participantsGeneral public

OutcomesNo policy/leadership change in response to the protests. The AfD lost a runoff election in the Saale-Orla district of Thuringia on January 28.

@BlueDragon also Australia? It looks like there's a typo, it says peak size "1,0000" which could be a typo away from 1,000 or 10,000

@benshindel Yep, thanks, possibly also Australia, which no one bet on ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

So, is this market about the next protest or about any protests during 2024? Seems the title and the description contradict each other...

@PS thanks for the feedback. I revised the title. The point is that it doesn’t include protests that started in 2023.

@BlueDragon Thanks. I think "in what countries" instead of "in what country" would be even clearer.

@PS 👍 done

Does China include Hong Kong/Macao?

@Ramble I think it should