Resolved monthly throughout 2024 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
I haven’t been able to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2024 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Repeat countries with active protests marked NA. Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
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Global Protest Tracker logged protests in December that started in: Romania, Syria, Turkey, Bangladesh, Chad, China, Ecuador, Kenya, and Liberia, but all peaked with fewer than 1,000 participants.
According to the Carnegie Endowment, the only new protest with >10K (actually >100K) was South KoreaMartial law protests
Thanks! That’s a wrap, but @traders feel free to head over here if you want to keep betting on mass protests 🪧 as they may develop in 2025.
NZ should have been here, or in Nov.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ckgrwem73gmt
An estimated 35,000 people have protested in New Zealand's capital against a bill that they say will redefine the country's founding treaty with the Māori people, police say
@OP if it make sense to reach out to the maintaners of the Global Protest Tracker, do it and let me know how it goes!
(unfortunately the terms of this market are such that I can't count it unless it's reflected in their data)
@BlueDragon Yeah, your hands are tied.
More noting for others, the tracker is far from perfect.
It had the NZ protest, but got the month wrong, and reduced the amount by a factor of 10.
@BlueDragon should settle as yes, no? They have two protests listed for 2024 with over 10k people already.
@ShakedKoplewitz Please read the resolution criteria.
It did resolve as yes already, and then was added back. See comments.
Resolution source updates approximately monthly but has not been updated since Oct 11.
The data entry finally caught up!
Venezuela did not resolve YES because according to CPT, there were not >10K participants in the protests.
These markets did resolve YES:
Bangladesh
Job quota protest July 2024 >10,000
Economic
Political
Corruption
Three weeks (paused starting July 22 and resumed July 29)Partly free
Trigger Dhaka court reinstated quota for government jobs (previously abolished in 2018 due to student protests).
Motivation Pushing the government to abolish the quota, which reserves 30 percent of government jobs to family members of those who fought in Bangladesh’s independence movement, and demanding that the government select candidates on merit. Protesters believe that the quota is discriminatory because it disproportionally benefits supporters of the Awami League party, which led the independence movement.
Key participants Students
Outcomes On July 22, the Supreme Court ruled that the war veterans’ quota be reduced to five percent. The government accepted the ruling the next day on July 23. More than 250 people, including protestors and police were killed during the protests. On August 5, protestors overran the prime minister’s palace and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned from her position and fled the country, ending her fifteen-year rule.
Pakistan
Bannu peace march July 2024 >10,000
Economic
Political
Corruption
Active Partly free
Trigger Militant attack in Bannu on July 15, which killed eight people.
Motivation Initially, protesting against Pakistan’s military operation to root out militants along Afghan border. Protesters are demanding peace after twenty years of military operations in the region. Also protesting the actions of the Pakistani military after they fired on protesters.
Key participants General public
Outcomes No policy/leadership change. The Pakistani military opened fire on protestors, leading to the death of at least one person.
France
Protest against National Rally June 2024 >100,000
Economic
Political
Corruption
2 days (June 15 and June 23)Free
TriggerSnap parliamentary elections called by President Emmanuel Macron.
MotivationProtesting the National Rally (NR) and calling on citizens to block the party from gaining power in the elections. In a second protest, criticizing the NR’s attitudes toward women’s rights.
Key participantsGeneral public, women’s rights groups
OutcomesNo policy/leadership change. In July 2024, the National Rally failed to win the majority in the parliament.
These would have resolved yes, but the MARKET DOES NOT EXIST:
Nigeria
End Bad Governance protest August 2024 >100,000
Economic
Political
Corruption
Ten days Partly free
Trigger Inspired by anti-tax protests in Kenya. Growing economic hardship; inflation rate in July 2024 was the highest it had been in Nigeria in twenty-eight years.
Motivation Protesting President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, which have included ending currency controls, higher interest rates, and partial removal of electricity and fuel subsidies. Protesters view Tinubu’s reforms as imposing unnecessary economic hardship on ordinary citizens.
Key participants General public
Outcomes No policy/leadership change. Tinubu made a televised address calling for an end to the protests and offering to open up dialogue with demonstrators. Police cracked down on protestors, leading to the death of at least twenty two people.
Kenya
Anti-tax protestJ une 2024 >10,000
Economic
Political
Corruption
Active Partly free
Trigger Approval of the Kenya Finance Bill 2024 by the parliament, which proposed a new tax system to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes.
Motivation Protesters intially called for the government to reject the bill. They have since called for the resignation of President William Ruto.
Key participants General public, youth
Outcomes On June 26, Ruto announced that he would not sign the finance bill. On July 25, the National Assembly rejected the bill in its entirety. On July 11, Ruto fired his cabinet members, then announced new cabinet nominations on July 24. These nominations include members of the opposition. Since the start of the protest, at least fifty people have been killed.
Resolution for May
tldr: none with existing markets.
Mexico
Anti-AMLO protest
May 2024
>10,000
Trigger
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has called to defund the country’s independent electoral agencies ahead of the presidential election on June 2, 2024.
Motivation
Oppose AMLO and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate running for president under AMLO’s Morena party. Express support for opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Call for the defense of the country’s independent electoral agencies.
Key participants
Opposition supporters
Outcomes
No policy/leadership change in response to protest.
Taiwan
Bluebird Movement against parliamentary reforms
May 2024
>10,000
Trigger
The Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party passed legislation in Parliament giving lawmakers power to ask the military, private companies, or individuals to disclose information deemed relevant by parliamentarians. The law gives Parliament power to punish those who fail to comply with these requests. It also criminalizes contempt of Parliament by government officials and requires the president to give regular reports to Parliament and answer lawmakers’ questions. Several Kuomintang senior officials have visited China this year to keep open lines of communication as China refuses to talk with President Lai Ching-te or the Democratic Progressive Party, claiming they are "separatists." Members and supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party fear collusion between the Kuomintang and China—although the Kuomintang denies being pro-China.
Motivation
Supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party protested against the bill, which they say was railroaded through the voting process by lawmakers and lacks adequate checks and balances to prevent abuse. They say the bill could undermine national security, as it would force government officials to disclose critical information of value to China.
Key participants
Democratic Progressive Party supporters
Outcomes
Lai and the cabinet rejected the bill and sent it back for constitutional review.
More on Spain, because it's interesting:
Trigger: Protesters claim that Spain’s tourism model does not benefit the Canary Islands and instead overruns them with tourists. Environmental groups say that tourists overcrowding the island are harming both local residents and the environment.
Motivation: Protest not against tourists coming to the Canary Islands, but against SpainÆs tourism policies. Demand the authorities limit the number of visitors to the Canary Islands and introduce an eco-tax to help the environment.
Key participants: Canary Islands residents
Outcomes: No policy or leadership change in response to the protests.