The dodo path is a bird path, which is harder than the mammal ones because there is no cloning and no uterus to borrow. Colossal's route is to edit Nicobar-pigeon primordial germ cells toward dodo traits and place them into chickens engineered to have no germ cells of their own, so that chickens lay pigeon eggs that hatch into edited pigeons. The first step, culturing pigeon primordial germ cells at all, was achieved only in 2025 (announced in September 2025 alongside $120 million in new funding), and the company itself frames the rest as a five-to-seven-year path, which lands around 2030 to 2032 for a bird carrying some dodo genes, followed by the usual argument about whether an edited Nicobar pigeon is a dodo, the argument the dire wolves started in 2025. 2040 leaves room for that argument and for a second attempt, so 28% looks slightly low if the resolver accepts a proxy and about right if the bird has to be recognisably a dodo to someone other than the company.

here's a related market for betting on specific woolly mammoth project milestones: /ASomewhatRudeParakeet/what-will-happen-during-the-woolly

https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/31/1067417/a-de-extinction-company-is-trying-to-resurrect-the-dodo/