2
Will there be a cure for schizophrenia before 2032?
8
closes 2032
14%
chance

"Cure" here means any treatment that can change someone's personality such that they're no longer diagnosed as schizophrenic, or can prevent a newborn from being diagnosed. (Must be an actual change to the person, not a change to the diagnosis criteiria.)

Doesn't need to be widely available or approved by any regulatory agency, just needs to exist and be shown to work without any significant doubt on the matter.

An active brain device would count. Embryo selection would not count, since that's just "choosing a different person".

Sort by:
WXTJ avatar
WXTJ

Nice question! Some pedantic questions:

I would presume that a 'cure' means that the treatment (if pharmacological) can be discontinued and a reasonable proportion (perhaps a majority) of those who were 'cured' will not have to take the treatment again and will not relapse. Would you agree?

If non-pharmacological, like a deep brain stimulation device, I think you should clarify if it would be a 'cure' if it had to remain active to maintain remission.

Would you accept embryo selection as a 'cure' if it can reliably select against schizophrenia, or does this not count? It is not a 'change to the person', more a 'change of person'.

Could you also please clarify your threshold for believing if a cure has been developed, eg will it need to have been approved for treatment of schizophrenia by a reputable medical regulatory authority? What standard of study would need to be done to additionally show that it was also 'curative'?

Thanks!

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@WXTJ An active brain device will count. Embryo selection will not count.

Doesn't need to have been approved by any regulatory agency, but there does need to be pretty strong evidence in favor of it working; there shouldn't be any significant doubt on the matter.

Related markets

Will there be a cure for autism before 2032?7%
Will Alzheimer’s be curable by 2027?40%
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?67%
Will flatback posture be confirmed as the primary cause of schizophrenia by 2030? 6%
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?28%
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?53%
Will HIV be eradicated in humans before 2030?15%
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?34%
Will malaria be erradicated before 2030?20%
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease by 2025?21%
When will Alzheimers be cured2045
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?11%
Will there be another pandemic before 2025?16%
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?29%
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?63%
Will gene editing have cured at least one major disease by 2025?50%
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?60%
Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?6%
Will there be another pandemic before 2024?9%
Will gluten intolerance be curable by 2028?15%