Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040? | Manifold

Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?

31

Ṁ1kṀ2.7k

2040

70%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/acausal-trade

In order to count, the two agents in question must be meaningfullly "agents", and at least somewhat general. For example, I would not count a program that was designed just to acausally trade with itself or another very similar program, such as for the purpose of manipulating this market.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

claude opus 4.5 frequently brings up FDT and superrationality when put in hypothetical games including other AIs, and I'd say acausal trade is only a short leap from that

...

surely at some point in history someone donated money to then receive back a donation from the other

also voting in elections

also those boxes where you can pick up and drop books

What would count as confirmation?

Do you consider to be acausal trade when people follow the Golden Rule, or, more generally, engage in contractualist moral reasoning? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J/acausal-normalcy

Acausal normalcy - LessWrong

This post is also available on the EA Forum. …

predictedNO

@NathanShowell No, must be more explicit than that.

1987 flash crash.

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Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

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Related questions

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?

Will time travel be commercially available before 2100?

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?

Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?

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