Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?
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https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/acausal-trade

In order to count, the two agents in question must be meaningfullly "agents", and at least somewhat general. For example, I would not count a program that was designed just to acausally trade with itself or another very similar program, such as for the purpose of manipulating this market.

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surely at some point in history someone donated money to then receive back a donation from the other

also voting in elections

also those boxes where you can pick up and drop books

What would count as confirmation?

Do you consider to be acausal trade when people follow the Golden Rule, or, more generally, engage in contractualist moral reasoning? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J/acausal-normalcy

predictedNO

@NathanShowell No, must be more explicit than that.

1987 flash crash.

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