
Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?
29
1kṀ22382040
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/acausal-trade
In order to count, the two agents in question must be meaningfullly "agents", and at least somewhat general. For example, I would not count a program that was designed just to acausally trade with itself or another very similar program, such as for the purpose of manipulating this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Do you consider to be acausal trade when people follow the Golden Rule, or, more generally, engage in contractualist moral reasoning? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J/acausal-normalcy
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get ASI before 2030?
53% chance
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?
22% chance
Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?
34% chance
Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?
9% chance
Will time travel be commercially available before 2100?
2% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
68% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
64% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
75% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
46% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
57% chance