Will there be a confirmed instance of acausal trade before 2040?
24
234
470
2040
17%
chance

https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/acausal-trade

In order to count, the two agents in question must be meaningfullly "agents", and at least somewhat general. For example, I would not count a program that was designed just to acausally trade with itself or another very similar program, such as for the purpose of manipulating this market.

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What would count as confirmation?

Do you consider to be acausal trade when people follow the Golden Rule, or, more generally, engage in contractualist moral reasoning? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J/acausal-normalcy

predicts NO

@NathanShowell No, must be more explicit than that.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

1987 flash crash.