Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?
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2035
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Advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation have the potential to reshape economies on a global scale. The extent to which machines and AI can capture value in the global economic landscape can serve as a barometer for assessing the degree of automation. Gross World Product (GWP) is a useful metric for evaluating the cumulative economic production of all countries.

Before 2035, will machines generate at least 90% of the Gross World Product (GWP) as evidenced by reputable economic analyses or academic publications?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve affirmatively if, before January 1st 2035, at least one authoritative economic analysis or high-quality scholarly article provides strong evidence that:

  1. Machines, encompassing both hardware (e.g., robots, automated manufacturing systems) and software (e.g., AI-driven processes, algorithmic trading systems), directly generate or facilitate the generation of economic value that comprises at least 90% of the GWP.

  2. The economic value captured or accrued by the owners or proprietors of these machines, through either direct ownership, intellectual property rights, or other forms of entitlement, also contributes to this 90% threshold.

Definitions:

  • Gross World Product (GWP): The combined gross national product of all the countries in the world, representing the total market value of all final goods and services produced globally in a given year, including off-Earth economic activity.

  • Machine: Any automated system or technology, inclusive of robotics and artificial intelligence, that can execute tasks, produce goods, or provide services without continuous human intervention.

  • Proprietors of Machines: Entities or individuals who hold ownership, rights, or control over the machines, and thus capture the economic value generated by these machines, potentially including governments and non-person entities.

If at least one authoritative economic analysis or high-quality scholarly article provides strong evidence that the contribution of machines or their proprietors to the GWP has reached or surpassed the 90% threshold by the specified date, the question will resolve positively. Should no such evidence emerge by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.

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Humans always finding something to do plus Baumol's cost disease pushing up wages makes this a clear No, imo

I think this hinges heavily on the definition of "facilitate"

If an industry is fully automated, won't its products become so cheap that it shrinks as a portion of the economy?

Look what happened to agriculture – it's one of the smallest parts of a developed country's GDP now, despite food production being more efficient than ever.

@lambda_fairy It depends on the exact details, but generally yes. Overall, however, the share of national income going to human labor has been declining in the United States over at least the last half century. I'd expect this to go near 0% if this question resolves positivity.