Will the two "did EA people know about SBF's fraud" markets resolve differently?
Effective Altruism
Basic
25
Ṁ2.4k
2025
6%
chance

/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-2023-will-substantial

/EgeErdil/will-substantial-evidence-emerge-by

If those two markets both resolve to YES or both to NO, this market resolves NO. If one resolves to YES and the other resolves to NO, this market resolves YES. If either one of them resolves N/A, this market resolves N/A.

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This obviously can't be higher than the sum of the two markets it's based on, and in general should be much lower than that, since they're presumably correlated.

Both markets miss the point
They knew he was a fraud
It's why they chose to annoint
A criminal and applaud

predicts NO

For the current 26 percent figure to make sense at the current percentages for the two markets, their outcomes need to be at best very loosely correlated. Or stated another way, you have to think the odds of YES resolution for both are very unlikely.

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