My dad is a professor of mathematics at UF. I asked him some questions about prediction market math, and he was a bit confused about how such markets worked and what the point of them is. He also seemed a bit put-off by Bayesian approaches to probability and their application to real-world descisions.
So I'm sending him an email with some more information about this area. So far, here's what it contains:
Will he find it interesting enough to spend more than just a few minutes looking into the subject?
Feel free to suggest other resources I can include. He'd likely be most interested in things that touch on the intersection of prediction markets with game theory or other areas of more traditional math. He would likely not be interested in anything super technical about exact market mechanisms, like DPM vs. CFMM or whatever.
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
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Probably too late but i would suggest a video, like this one from Robin Hanson: https://youtu.be/4yZKGbq1YmA
If you're a subscriber of ACX, @ScottAlexander has a prediction-market FAQ (peer review mode) up at https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/peer-review-prediction-market-faq
Scott you should publish so Isaac's dad can read it! (I've also got someone I want to share it with)
@GavrielK You'd be surprised! There's a wide range of mathematics topics, and people who are interested in one can find others quite boring. (For example, I have next to no interest in calculus.)
I've edited the resolution criteria to be "interested enough to spend more than just a few minutes looking into the subject".