Will I kill someone before 2035?
30
77
630
2035
4%
chance

I kill about one person every few weeks, by not donating more of my time to effective charity. But that makes for a boring market, so let's limit this to actions that most of society would agree constitute killing someone. This includes but is not limited to:

  • Comitting murder.

  • Hiring someone else to commit murder.

  • Legally killing someone in self-defense.

  • Being drafted as a soldier and killing someone in a war.

  • Carrying out an execution for a prison.

  • Comitting suicide.

  • Having legal authority over and consenting to a family member in a coma being taken off life support.

  • Agreeing to save someone's life in some circumstance, then choosing not to do so.

Some things that do not count:

  • Having an abortion.

  • Shutting down an AI that some people believe is sentient.

  • Voting for a political policy or candidate that results in people dying.

  • Choosing not to attempt to save the life of someone I could save but had no social responsibility over.

I reserve the right to resolve this market to NO at the close date if I perceive there to be strong external incentives for me to not resolve it to YES, even if I have killed someone.

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if you pulled the lever in the trolley problem would you resolve this YES?

@Sinclair How does most of society feel about that?

By the way, just reminding people that this market exists.

13?% 😰

"I kill about one person every few weeks 😳.......................

by not donating more of my time to effective charity" 😮‍💨

If I'm going to heavily invest in YES on this, I need assurances that your executor of estate (in the event of suicide) or lawyer (in the event of murder) will login to resolve it.

@Jacknaut See my profile

@IsaacKing o nice

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