Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?
11
แน€271
2030
32%
chance

Resolves YES if I feel I've gotten more money or other items of material value out of Manifold than I've put in. Charity donations count as material value, so if I make 10 million mana and donate it all, that'll count. But if charity donations go away and I can't do anything useful with mana I acquire, that doesn't count.

It would also count if my time on Manifold contributes to getting me a job offer or something else of more concrete value than just "fun".

My time counts as 0 value, unless I'm doing explicit work for someone who hired me, in which case I'll value my time at the next highest job prospect I have.

I will also count @TobiasVyseri's profits towards this. (For example, she profited a few hundred dollars from the playing cards that Manifold paid her to design for Manifest.)

Get แน€600 play money
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Withdrew $1221 from Manifund for community projects.

I don't have enough information to bet on this market. What's the count at the moment?

predicts NO

@CertaintyOfVictory Uh, somewhere around -$15,000.

@IsaacKing Sorry in advance and just in case you are not a millionaire and you don't have anyone in your life saying it, I have a piece of unasked advice from one human to another: Gambling addiction is treatable and please take care!

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Wasn't most of WvM refunded though? Or have you made a commitment to eventually repay that, such that it should be counted as a liability?

predicts NO

@Mira I've not made any commitment to repay it, though in theory I'd like to. I still lost a lot; they didn't refund all, and I had also bought quite a bit of mana from other users.

predicts NO

Got paid $50 from @Joshua for being a guest on Manifold live.

predicts NO

Also I made $530 on Polymarket's Aella market a while back, which I heard about on Manifold, so I'll count that.

predicts NO

@RobertCousineau Just send me $33 for my search engine