This market is about prediction #1 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:

GPT-4 will still, like its predecessors, be a bull in a china shop, reckless and hard to control. It will still make a significant number of shake-your-head stupid errors, in ways that are hard to fully predict. It will often do what you want, sometimes not—and it will remain difficult to anticipate which in advance.