Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire? | Manifold

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

79

1kṀ10k

2050

33%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES once Elon Musk is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire.

Resolves NO once someone else is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire, or Elon Musk experiences information-theoretic death.

(Denoted in nominal USD.)

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bought Ṁ30 NO

I think the ketamine might melt his brain before then

Related: https://manifold.markets/robotnik/will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1?r=cm9ib3RuaWs

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

48% chance. Resolution Criteria - (1) Major publication of record reporting - NYTimes / Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / Etc (2) Should it be mathmatically demonstrable (ie, shares reported in latest SC 13G/A multiplied by current stock price, etc) (3) Elon's Death - Upon his death if to that point the market has not resolved 'YES' already, it will resolve 'NO'.

Does this also resolve NO conditional on Musk dying?

@LukeBousfield Yeah that would count too.

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+7% 1d86% chance

Who will be the first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk die a billionaire?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $500 billion by 2026?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person on the planet when he passes away?

Will the world see a trillionaire before the year 2035?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

Related questions

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2025?

Who will be the first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

When will there be the world‘s first trillionaire?

Will Elon Musk die a billionaire?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will Elon Musk's net worth exceed $500 billion by 2026?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person on the planet when he passes away?

Will the world see a trillionaire before the year 2035?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

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