Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?
73
1.2kṀ44k2071
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria -
(1) Major publication of record reporting - NYTimes / Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / Etc
(2) Should it be mathmatically demonstrable (ie, shares reported in latest SC 13G/A multiplied by current stock price, etc)
(3) Elon's Death - Upon his death if to that point the market has not resolved 'YES' already, it will resolve 'NO'.
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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