Will Destiny debate someone about AI existential risk by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jun 27
Resolved
YES

The debate must primarily focus on existential risk, not just briefly touch on it and move on.

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Obviously not a particularly interesting debate, but by the intellectual standards of Destiny and his followers, I think this definitely qualifies. The discussion was explicitly about existential risk, Destiny disagreed with whoever that other person was, they (however poorly) discussed substantive issues.

predicted YES
predicted YES

@IsaacKing IMO this can be resolved.

predicted NO

@Agh Disagree, wasn’t a debate by any reasonable definition. They didn’t even disagree

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@MouthyInfidel actually it says "debate" right there in the thumbnail.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@Agh This is weaker evidence than the fact that there literally was not a debate in the video

predicted YES

@MouthyInfidel There was a debate and it was about existential risk from AI, it just wasn't between Destiny and an interlocutor. He was basically an observer or moderator at best. So you're right, obviously it doesn't resolve the market.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Agh what caused the change in your opinion?

predicted YES

@DylanSlagh a viewer called in yesterday and discussed the topic with him. It wasn't a full on formal debate but i hope it still counts.

bought Ṁ70 of YES

This seems like the safest bet in the world, no? If he didn't talk about it in 8 months I would be shocked.

predicted NO

@Fantazy Nah dude no chance. Destiny has only briefly chatted about AI and xrisk as a curiosity where he's mostly asking questions. I doubt he'll stake out a hard position on the issue in 2023. His debates are mostly around policy positions with concrete data and doesn't make large jumps in reasoning. IMO AI xrisk is waaaay too abstract and far outside his wheelhouse.

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