Which famous people will name AI as an existential threat before 2026? [Mega Independent]
29
9.8k
2026
78%
Joe Rogan
59%
Donald Trump
51%
Joe Biden
50%
Ursula von der Leyen
44%
Tom Cruise
39%
Jordan Petersen
30%
Giorgia Meloni
25%
Slavoj Žižek
21%
Xi Jinping
18%
Taylor Swift
17%
Kim Jong Un
16%
Kazuo Ishiguro
13%
Greta Thunberg
11%
Oprah Winfrey
6%
Lionel Messi
Resolved
YES
Vladimir Putin

Pope Francis just came out with a call for binding global treaty to regulate AI:

Francis called for ethical scrutiny of the "aims and interest of (AI's) owners and developers" warning that some applications of AI "may pose a risk to our survival and endanger our common home," a reference to the earth.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/pope-calls-binding-global-treaty-artificial-intelligence-2023-12-14/

Which other famous people will make similar statements? Feel free to add your own people.

Needs to be a public statement picked up by credible news source, said in interview, personal writings, or similar.

I might bet in this market, but will avoid taking large enough positions to impair my judgment.

"Existential risk" broadly defined as on the EA Forum Wiki:

An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.[1] An existential risk could threaten the extinction of humans (and other sentient beings), or it could threaten some other unrecoverable collapse or permanent failure to achieve a potential good state.

Note that it is a broader definition than extinction risk, and could also cover things like totalitarian lock-in. However, smaller negative effects such as discrimination, bias, significant economic damages, election tampering, etc, would not be enough to resolve YES.

Let me know if further clarifications are needed.

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What if somebody mentions it without endorsing it?

bought Ṁ10 Joe Biden YES

@GoodGuesser As in, they don't believe it could be an existential threat but that others do?
I think the spirit of the market is that they mention it as a possibility/something worth thinking about, rather than dismissing it. Does that answer your question? Sorry for late reply.

@HenriThunberg Yes I think so. I wasn’t sure if it was “refer to the concept of ai being an existential threat”, but sounds like it’s “endorse the concept”.

Vladimir Putin
bought Ṁ8,000 Vladimir Putin YES

Resolving YES, compares it to the threat of nuclear weapons and its capacity to "drive humanity to extinction".

Does Tom Cruise count if he says it in the next Mission Impossible movie? Or does he have to say it in an actual interview or something

bought Ṁ10 Greta Thunberg NO

@dominic Hah, that's interesting, but rereading my original criteria I think it's pretty clear:

> Needs to be a public statement picked up by credible news source, said in interview, personal writings, or similar.

So this would not be enough to resolve YES for Tom Cruise. Doesn't seem impossible he'd talk about it in an interview to hype the movie, though.

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