Will there be a community formed around a self-reflective AI e-celebrity by 2028?

tailcalled

closes 2028

91%

chance

ALL

https://twitter.com/tailcalled/status/1626522410382917633

I won't be trading in this market.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm not quite sure I understand the resolution criteria. Going off the fact virtual influencers have millions of followers, I can't be long until someone plugs an interesting LLM into one and creates the first "ai influencer"

2 replies

tailcalled

@ElliotDavies If it's not just a party trick but instead a persona that persoatently has a bunch of fans that it talks with then yes, I would count that.

Going from the probabilities, it appears that this is quite a safe prediction and the outcome is overdetermined. I'm thinking maybe I should set up a bunch of markets about how far it will go.

Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ30 of YES

@tailcalled that sounds about right to me - but I suspect making good resolution criteria is quite hard unless you have a real vision for what the future will look like

NoUsernameSelected bought Ṁ100 YES from 89% to 91%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ51 YES from 90% to 89%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 79% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 78% (cancelled)

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firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 76% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 75% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 74% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 73% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 72% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 71% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 70% (cancelled)

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ36/Ṁ40 YES at 90% (cancelled)

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ30 YES at 89% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 88% (cancelled)

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firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 86% (cancelled)

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firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 84% (cancelled)

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firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 82% (cancelled)

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 81% (cancelled)

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MayMeta bought Ṁ5 YES from 88% to 89%

Chelos bought Ṁ2 NO from 89% to 88%

Winston Oswald-Drummond bought Ṁ10 YES at 89%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ25 YES from 87% to 89%

na pewno bought Ṁ4 NO from 89% to 87%

snabb sold Ṁ16 YES from 90% to 89%

Elliot Davies bought Ṁ30 YES from 88% to 90%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ5 NO at 88% (cancelled)

Elliot Davies bought Ṁ100 YES from 82% to 90%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 82% (cancelled)

Elliot Davies bought Ṁ85 YES from 74% to 85%

Elliot Davies bought Ṁ10 YES from 71% to 74%

Justified use of Fallibilism bought Ṁ10 YES from 67% to 71%

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Valentin Golev bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 65%

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