Will anyone ask me to make a market about them?
8
21
200
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

Sometimes users want a market about whether they can be trusted. Them making a market on this would result in it being heavily skewed, since if the answer is no, they might resolve the market incorrectly.

A few examples of markets that could be subject to this bias:

https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-anyone-successfully-contest-on

https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets-e61ca764273d

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/can-i-be-trusted-to-buy-and-sell-tr

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets

An easy way around this is to simply ask someone else (who themselves has a strong reputation) to create and resolve the market instead.

This market resolves to YES if any other user asks me to make a market about them for something like this reason by the end of the year. Otherwise it resolves NO.

If I think that someone is asking as a way to force this market to resolve to YES, I reserve the right to not count that one. (e.g. if they bet a bunch on YES before asking.)

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I’m not currently familiar with relevant specifics. Can market makers delete comments? Is it hard to find old closed or resolved markets? Could we ask manifold to pin these, I guess they can just go in a profile description—though that could mislead less informed or motivated users.

predicted NO

Can market makers delete comments?

No, though that might be implemented at some point in the future. We can however block people, and that prevents them from posting future comments on our markets.

Is it hard to find old closed or resolved markets?

Not past how hard it is to find any markets you want to find. But traders don't want to go digging through hundreds of past markets before placing any new bet.

Could we ask manifold to pin these?

There have been suggestions to implement something like this intrinsically on the site, like a built-in reputation market per user that resolves based on some consensus mechanism every few months. But nothing's been tried yet.

predicted NO

Interesting. This market is at 98.2%, but as far as I can remember, nobody asked me to do this, so I think I should resolve NO. Am I forgetting something?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-ask-me-to-make-a-market#TzjRLQPou0cys6Ff60tS

predicted NO

@A Oh, did I just miss that comment? Whoops.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

If I think that someone is asking as a way to force this market to resolve to YES, I reserve the right to not count that one. (e.g. if they bet a bunch on YES before asking.)

What if I legitimately want to ask, but haven't gotten around to formulating the market description yet, and am predicting yes in the meantime?

predicted NO

@jack Sorry, I think I somehow missed all the activity on this market. This is moot now, but I would have counted that as NO, since the request was never actually made.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I would also appreciate it if someone did this for me, as I mention here.

@IsaacKing Done. I would also like you to do this for me.

predicted YES

Seems like this should resolve YES based on this ask

predicted NO

@Elspeth Sorry, I didn't see this comment. What would you like me to ask about specifically?

@IsaacKing Something similar to my most recent market about you, or something about my reliability more generally.

@IsaacKing Fine, though it might have been better to extend the resolution date past 2023, since I don't make many short-term markets.

predicted NO

@Elspeth I can make more once those close.