Can I be trusted to buy and sell trading cards?
Basic
18
4.7k
2030
95%
chance

I buy and sell a lot of trading cards; usually Magic: The Gathering, sometimes Pokemon or other games. These marketplaces rely strongly on reputation and references to ensure that one is buying from someone who isn't going to scam you.

This seems like a great subject for a prediction market! I will link this market to anyone who is uncertain of whether they can trust me with their money and/or valuable cards.

If you are one of those people and you're unfamiliar with what a prediction market is, it's a way for people to bet on the outcome of any question. The percentage that's displayed on this market is the likelyhood that I can be trusted. If anyone disagrees and thinks I can't be trusted, they can bet against me, and they'll make money if they're right.

The specific resolution criteria of this market are: If before the end of 2029 I am credibly accused of a serious theft or scam, this market resolves to NO. Otherwise it resolves to YES at the beginning of 2030.

For an accusation to count as "credible" it does not need to be proven true, but it needs to come with substantial evidence and convince a significant fraction of people who once trusted me that they should trust me less in the future. The alleged action does not need to be illegal, it only needs to be strongly and clearly immoral, and involve taking money or other items of value that should rightfully belong to someone else. In the event of a disagreement on how this market should be resolved, I will defer to a poll of Manifold users and my Facebook friends.

Given the inherrent resolution risk in a market like this, I would appreciate it if some other trustworthy market creators on Manifold were to make a market on whether I will resolve this market correctly.

There are two so far, which can be found here and here. If you think I shouldn't be trusted, go make some free money by betting against me over in those markets. :)

In order to have everything convieniently in one place, here's some other evidence in favor of my trustworthyness:

And in the interest of transparency, here's some evidence against my trustworthyness:

  • I don't care very much about social acceptance, and I sometimes do things that many other people believe are immoral. (e.g. this.)

  • As a teenager I stole some money and Magic cards from a friend of mine. (I have since apologized and returned them.)

Please feel free to put additional evidence in favor of either conclusion into the comments. (Which, notably, I cannot delete.)

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Lol I do not care about this market at all but reading that facebook thread about data collecting by watching people moderate (or judge?) some magic shit is actually hilarious.

Favourite moment: I'm allowed to judge you, but you can't judge me because as soon as you introduce maths it's a scientific study and you need consent 🤣 (they didn't even care until they realised you were evaluating them)

Bonus meme when that "victim" invokes their trauma because they were triggered by being included in a statistic.

Extremely based that you kept recording the data and made a post to emphasise that you were better than the other judges by your own criteria. To top it all off, the manifesto was a great finishing move. 10/10 Funny as hell.

Are you trying to encourage us to cause some scandal that will damage your reputation in buying and selling trading cards?

predicts YES

@ZZZZZZ Good luck.

Here is another cross-trust market:

If people don't trust you to buy and sell trading cards, they won't trust you to resolve this market correctly.

@Yev I know, that's why in the description I asked people to do exactly what you just did. Thanks! :)

I maaay have skimmed over some parts of that wall of text :)

predicts YES

Fair enough