Resolves to the number of markets created by me that @MattP comments had "dishonorable resolution" in 2022.
Note that the term has been used broadly to encompass many things like honest mistakes, misleading question titles, and somewhat ambiguous resolutions. See examples of discussion about this at https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delegation-of-us-senators-vi#bec1sWxSzajNVO5drKKS and https://manifold.markets/jack/will-donald-trump-be-us-president-o#aGjPCxUrX6Pg0dSsXnc0
In the event @MattP changes his mind about whether a resolution was dishonorable, his final decision will be what is counted here.
Of course, this market is created by me so you have to trust me to resolve this accurately. If you think I'm unlikely to intentionally misresolve a market in a blatantly wrong way (which I claim is an accurate belief), then you could think of this as a market on the likelihood of me resolving any question in a slightly dishonorable way.
Note: bounds are set to [-1, 2] with initial probability at the midpoint, so that there is reasonable liquidity around 0 which is the most likely outcome. Obviously a negative answer is not possible.
Aug 27, 10:39am: I will not trade in this market other than a starting bet to move the initial probability to 0.001.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ100 | |
2 | Ṁ1 | |
3 | Ṁ1 | |
4 | Ṁ0 |