6% chance. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent. The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end. Background Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats. Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use. North Korea's nuclear build-up continued with testing of new delivery systems and claims of a nuclear-powered submarine. If no new agreement is reached to cap stockpiles, the number of warheads deployed on strategic missiles is likely to increase after New START expires in February 2026. Considerations The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force in January 2021, comprehensively prohibiting nuclear weapons under international law. However, the International Court of Justice concluded that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to international humanitarian law, though it could not definitively rule on use in extreme circumstances of self-defense. No nuclear weapon has been used offensively since 1945. This description was generated by AI. "2026" ends 2027 January 1st 00:00 EST