Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
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Hydrogen maybe but probably not because methane is so much easier to work with. Battery definitely not because the range would be too short. A typical car gets 600 miles range on a 20 gallon fuel tank that weighs 120 pounds. A long range model 3 gets 363 miles range on a 1060 pound battery. That’s 5 miles per pound of fuel vs 0.33 miles per pound of fuel. Modern airliners with a 15x reduction in fuel capacity would be unusable.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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