Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?
Will the majority of new passenger aircraft sold in 2050 be hydrogen fueled?
29
1kṀ1505
2051
14%
chance

The airline industry is expected to be one of the industries which struggles most with moving towards a more sustainable future. This is in part due to the fact that the specific energy of batteries is too low for longer distance flights. Weight is a much more significant factor for aircraft compared to cars or ships. Hydrogen has a higher specific energy than jet fuel but it comes with it's own engineering and operational challenges.

Airbus is investing in research into hydrogen fuel as a possible alternative: https://www.airbus.com/en/innovation/low-carbon-aviation/hydrogen/zeroe . They expect to release their first commercial hydrogen aircraft in 2035.

This question regards new aircraft being produced and entering the market. If the majority of the global fleet is not hydrogen fueled but the majority of new additions to this fleet is the question will resolve YES. If the majority of new aircraft sold in 2050 is not hydrogen fueled it will resolve NO.

Technology
Economics
Science
Global Warming
Climate change
Airline Industry
Air travel
Energy
Sustainability
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

I think the industry is heading more towards SAF (bio or synthetic) for aviation decarb. Compressed/liquid hydrogen storage is expensive both from a pure energetic perspective as well as a containment/materials perspective (thousands of bars of pressure, cryogenic temps, hydrogen embrittlement, etc). rapid H2 refueling is also a challenge -- a typical airline refueling truck pumps ~1000 gpm of jet fuel and takes an hour to refuel a 747, during which it maintains an effective power transfer rate of ~2 GW (!) -- this is nearly impossible to replicate with current hydrogen pumping tech (incidentally, one of many challenges that killed the hydrogen trucking company Nikola)

1y

I expect that most of the existing aircraft will not be hydrogen based. However, I also expect the industry will be moving in that direction at this point. This means most companies will not be willing to invest in aircraft based on older technologies. They will continue to operate jet fuel based aircraft, but transition to hydrogen by purchasing hydrogen fueled aircraft going forward.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

What decade will US air travel be more than 50% sustainably fueled? Hydrogen/renewable fuels/electric
Will hydrogen be the defacto liquid fuel source by 2030? 🛫⛽️🚢🚗
8% chance
Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?
32% chance
What proportion new car/suv/light truck sales will be hydrogen powered in 2030?
4.1
Will the majority of the global civil aviation industry be hybrid or fully electric by 2035?
9% chance
Will hydrogen cars be more popular than electric cars in 2030 in the first world?
5% chance
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 80% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
23% chance
Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
73% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
74% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
57% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy