Will another police killing in the United States go seriously viral before 2030?

Must be similar to George Floyd in scope of awareness, protests, and acknowledgement from people in positions of power.

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Odds are obviously blk trns prost as the new patron saint of glh

Would Michael Brown, Eric Garner, and Breonna Taylor count?

@connorwilliams97 Breonna Taylor was close enough to George Floyd that they were both part of the same outrage.

Michael Brown and Eric Garner both happened before I was politically active, so I don't have a good idea of how widespread they were.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I think Brown and Garner should count, personally

predicts NO

@Conflux Although they were probably still less significant than Floyd, so idk

@Conflux yeah, without covid I don't think 2020's "summer of love" would have gotten nearly as out of control as it did. Not a repeatable event imo. I do think outrage on the level of Brown or Garner is very likely to happen 2 or 3 times between now and 2030.

@connorwilliams97 yeah, I think it matters greatly whether the market is truly "similar to George Floyd in scope" or just "seriously viral"

@Conflux Yeah, I put the likelihood of another incident of summer-2020-level unrest by 2030 at around 35-40%, but the likelihood of Michael-Brown-level unrest at around 70%. Will refrain from betting unless further clarification is provided.

Any suggestions for more concrete criteria I could use?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing it's basically impossible as there's so many.

Floyd was notable because he was a bouncer. It was cop killing cop. It has nothing to do with race until later.

A case of cop killing a cop is notable, if that happens then that's a big deal.

The nypd is losing a quarter of its officers every year. You can do the math on retirements and ignore the budget. You could make a market for cop annihilation because I have a spreadsheet saying the nypd and lapd won't exist in 3 years.

@IsaacKing Number of police stations burned >0? National guard deployments?

@Lorxus Hmm, not terrible. Happen to know what the counts were for Floyd?

Its almost prevented from making the news by being so common.