Will another police killing in the United States go seriously viral before 2030?
33
แน€853
2030
86%
chance

Must be similar to George Floyd in scope of awareness, protests, and acknowledgement from people in positions of power.

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:

Odds are obviously blk trns prost as the new patron saint of glh

Would Michael Brown, Eric Garner, and Breonna Taylor count?

@connorwilliams97 Breonna Taylor was close enough to George Floyd that they were both part of the same outrage.

Michael Brown and Eric Garner both happened before I was politically active, so I don't have a good idea of how widespread they were.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I think Brown and Garner should count, personally

predicts NO

@Conflux Although they were probably still less significant than Floyd, so idk

@Conflux yeah, without covid I don't think 2020's "summer of love" would have gotten nearly as out of control as it did. Not a repeatable event imo. I do think outrage on the level of Brown or Garner is very likely to happen 2 or 3 times between now and 2030.

@connorwilliams97 yeah, I think it matters greatly whether the market is truly "similar to George Floyd in scope" or just "seriously viral"

@Conflux Yeah, I put the likelihood of another incident of summer-2020-level unrest by 2030 at around 35-40%, but the likelihood of Michael-Brown-level unrest at around 70%. Will refrain from betting unless further clarification is provided.

Any suggestions for more concrete criteria I could use?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing it's basically impossible as there's so many.

Floyd was notable because he was a bouncer. It was cop killing cop. It has nothing to do with race until later.

A case of cop killing a cop is notable, if that happens then that's a big deal.

The nypd is losing a quarter of its officers every year. You can do the math on retirements and ignore the budget. You could make a market for cop annihilation because I have a spreadsheet saying the nypd and lapd won't exist in 3 years.

@IsaacKing Number of police stations burned >0? National guard deployments?

@Lorxus Hmm, not terrible. Happen to know what the counts were for Floyd?

Its almost prevented from making the news by being so common.